"When written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two
characters - one represents danger and the other represents
opportunity."
-- John F. Kennedy, 35 President of the United States
"Nobody grows old by merely living a number of years. People grow old by
deserting their ideals. You are as young as your faith, as old as your
doubt; as young as your self-confidence, as old as your fear; as young
as your hope, as old as your despair."
-- Douglas MacArthur, General
"Feedback is the breakfast of champions."
-- Rick Tate
"A man cannot leave a better legacy to the world than a well-educated
family."
-- Thomas Scott
"Motivation is everything. You can do the work of two people, but you
can't be two people. Instead, you have to inspire the next guy down the
line and get him to inspire his people."
-- Lee Iacocca, Auto Executive
"Who begins too much accomplishes little."
-- German Proverb
"Success in business requires training and discipline and hard work. But
if you're frightened by these things, the opportunities are just as
great today as they ever were."
-- David Rockefeller, American Banker
"A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."
-- Chinese Proverb
"Life begins when you do."
-- Hugh Downs, American Brodcaster
"You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
-- Wayne Gretzky, Hockey Player
"The key is not to prioritize what is on the schedule, but to schedule
your priorities."
-- Stephen Covey, Author and Speaker
"When patterns are broken, new worlds emerge."
-- Tuli Kupferberg, Author
"All things are difficult before they are easy."
-- John Norley
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."
-- Darrell Royal
"As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch
what they do."
-- Andrew Carnegie, Industrialist
"Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your
life."
-- Confucius, Philosopher
"Do the thing you fear, and the death of fear is certain."
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson, Poet
"Just as iron rusts from disuse, even so does inaction spoil the
intellect."
-- Leonardo da Vinci, Artist
"Our chief want in life is somebody who will make us do what we can."
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson, Poet
"Faith is taking the first step even when you don't see the staircase."
-- Martin Luther King, Jr., civil rights leader
"The miracle is this - the more we share, the more we have."
-- Leonard Nimoy, Actor
"You can't build a reputation on what you're going to do."
-- Henry Ford, Founder of the Ford Motor Company
"Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a
nightmare."
-- Japanese Proverb
"The ability to simplify means to eliminate the unnecessary so that the
necessary may speak."
-- Hans Hoffmann
"Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Wishing is not enough; we must do."
-- Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe, Author
"Swing hard, in case they throw the ball where you're swinging."
-- Duke Snider, Baseball Player
"Envisioning the end is enough to put the means in motion."
-- Dorothea Brande, Writer
"Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones, you'll start
having positive results."
-- Willie Nelson, Musician
"Self-respect is the fruit of discipline; and the sense of dignity grows
with the ability to say not to oneself."
-- Abraham Joshua Heschel, Leading Jewish theologian of the 20th century
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Monday, October 26, 2009
Quotes!
"Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product."
-- Eleanor Roosevelt, Former First Lady
"The unexamined life is not worth living."
-- Socrates
"The quality of our expectations determines the quality of our actions."
-- Andres Godin
"If you're not having problems, you are missing an opportunity for growth."
-- Anonymous
"Constant effort and frequent mistakes are the stepping stones to genius."
-- Elbert Hubbard, American Writer
"No great thing is created suddenly."
-- Epictetus, philosopher
"There is a time to let things happen and a time to make things happen."
-- Hugh Prather
"If you can find a path with no obstacles, it probably doesn't lead anywhere."
-- Frank A. Clark
"Destiny is not a matter of chance, it's a matter of choice; it is not a
thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved."
-- William Jennings Bryan, 41st United States Secretary of State
"In order for you to profit from your mistakes, you have to get out and
make some."
-- Anonymous
"All the problems of the world could be settled easily if men were only
willing to think."
-- Thomas J. Watson, Former President of IBM
"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The next best time is now."
-- Chinese Proverb
"Today I will do what others won't, so tomorrow I can accomplish what
others can't."
-- Jerry Rice, Football Player
"Going into business for yourself, becoming an entrepreneur, is the
modern-day equivalent of pioneering on the old frontier."
-- Paula Nelson
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees
the opportunity in every difficulty."
-- Winston Churchill, British prime minister
"A good manager is a man who isn't worried about his own career but
rather the careers of those who work for him."
-- H.S.M. Burnes
"The purpose of our lives is to give birth to the best which is within us."
-- Marianne Williamson, Author and Spiritual Activist
"Bottom line: if you show a genuine interest in learning about how
others became successful, you can open up a world of opportunities."
-- Armstrong Williams, Political Commentator
"The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender."
-- Vince Lombardi
"Wake up with a smile and go after life... live it, enjoy it, taste it,
smell it, feel it."
-- Joe Knapp
-- Eleanor Roosevelt, Former First Lady
"The unexamined life is not worth living."
-- Socrates
"The quality of our expectations determines the quality of our actions."
-- Andres Godin
"If you're not having problems, you are missing an opportunity for growth."
-- Anonymous
"Constant effort and frequent mistakes are the stepping stones to genius."
-- Elbert Hubbard, American Writer
"No great thing is created suddenly."
-- Epictetus, philosopher
"There is a time to let things happen and a time to make things happen."
-- Hugh Prather
"If you can find a path with no obstacles, it probably doesn't lead anywhere."
-- Frank A. Clark
"Destiny is not a matter of chance, it's a matter of choice; it is not a
thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved."
-- William Jennings Bryan, 41st United States Secretary of State
"In order for you to profit from your mistakes, you have to get out and
make some."
-- Anonymous
"All the problems of the world could be settled easily if men were only
willing to think."
-- Thomas J. Watson, Former President of IBM
"The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The next best time is now."
-- Chinese Proverb
"Today I will do what others won't, so tomorrow I can accomplish what
others can't."
-- Jerry Rice, Football Player
"Going into business for yourself, becoming an entrepreneur, is the
modern-day equivalent of pioneering on the old frontier."
-- Paula Nelson
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees
the opportunity in every difficulty."
-- Winston Churchill, British prime minister
"A good manager is a man who isn't worried about his own career but
rather the careers of those who work for him."
-- H.S.M. Burnes
"The purpose of our lives is to give birth to the best which is within us."
-- Marianne Williamson, Author and Spiritual Activist
"Bottom line: if you show a genuine interest in learning about how
others became successful, you can open up a world of opportunities."
-- Armstrong Williams, Political Commentator
"The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender."
-- Vince Lombardi
"Wake up with a smile and go after life... live it, enjoy it, taste it,
smell it, feel it."
-- Joe Knapp
H1N1: Information is the Best Defense!
Despite predictions from researchers at Purdue University that the H1N1 outbreak will peak this week, the reality is that it won't be going away any time soon. Let's not forget that the news is filled with shortages of the vaccine, as the number of H1N1 cases continues to surge across the country. And federal officials have warned that a second, larger outbreak could occur in early January.
The reality is that the best way to stop the spread of H1N1 is to know the symptoms and to take steps to protect yourself-and others-from it. The following information can help.
What are the symptoms of H1N1... and how are they different from the common cold?
Symptom
1-Cold
2-H1N1 Flu
Fever
1-Fever is rare with a cold.
2-Fever is usually present with the flu in up to 80% of all flu cases. A temperature of 100°F or higher for 3 to 4 days is associated with the flu.
Coughing
1-A hacking, productive (mucus- producing) cough is often present with a cold.
2-A non-productive (non-mucus producing) cough is usually present with the flu (sometimes referred to as dry cough).
Aches
1-Slight body aches and pains can be part of a cold.
2-Severe aches and pains are common with the flu.
Stuffy Nose
1-Stuffy nose is commonly present with a cold and typically resolves spontaneously within a week.
2-Stuffy nose is not commonly present with the flu.
Chills
1-Chills are uncommon with a cold.
2-60% of people who have the flu experience chills.
Tiredness
1-Tiredness is fairly mild with a cold.
2-Tiredness is moderate to severe with the flu.
Sneezing
1-Sneezing is commonly present with a cold.
2-Sneezing is not common with the flu.
Sudden Symptoms
1-Cold symptoms tend to develop over a few days.
2-The flu has a rapid onset within 3-6 hours. The flu hits hard and includes sudden symptoms like high fever, aches and pains.
Headache
1-A headache is fairly uncommon with a cold.
2-A headache is very common with the flu, present in 80% of flu cases.
Sore Throat
1-Sore throat is commonly present with a cold.
2-Sore throat is not commonly present with the flu.
Chest Discomfort
1-Chest discomfort is mild to moderate with a cold.
2-Chest discomfort is often severe with the flu.
If you think you have the H1N1 flu, you should take a few common-sense steps to protect your friends, family members, and coworkers. For instance, if you feel sick, stay home until you feel better and have gone at least 24 hours without relying on medicine to break your fever.
In addition, wash your hands, linens, dishes, and so on thoroughly. And cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze--and then throw the tissue away immediately. Finally, if you have to share a small space with other people, consider wearing a facemask to help make sure you don't spread the flu to the people around you.
Follow these steps and monitor your symptoms to help stop the spread of H1N1...and remain happy and healthy!
The reality is that the best way to stop the spread of H1N1 is to know the symptoms and to take steps to protect yourself-and others-from it. The following information can help.
What are the symptoms of H1N1... and how are they different from the common cold?
Symptom
1-Cold
2-H1N1 Flu
Fever
1-Fever is rare with a cold.
2-Fever is usually present with the flu in up to 80% of all flu cases. A temperature of 100°F or higher for 3 to 4 days is associated with the flu.
Coughing
1-A hacking, productive (mucus- producing) cough is often present with a cold.
2-A non-productive (non-mucus producing) cough is usually present with the flu (sometimes referred to as dry cough).
Aches
1-Slight body aches and pains can be part of a cold.
2-Severe aches and pains are common with the flu.
Stuffy Nose
1-Stuffy nose is commonly present with a cold and typically resolves spontaneously within a week.
2-Stuffy nose is not commonly present with the flu.
Chills
1-Chills are uncommon with a cold.
2-60% of people who have the flu experience chills.
Tiredness
1-Tiredness is fairly mild with a cold.
2-Tiredness is moderate to severe with the flu.
Sneezing
1-Sneezing is commonly present with a cold.
2-Sneezing is not common with the flu.
Sudden Symptoms
1-Cold symptoms tend to develop over a few days.
2-The flu has a rapid onset within 3-6 hours. The flu hits hard and includes sudden symptoms like high fever, aches and pains.
Headache
1-A headache is fairly uncommon with a cold.
2-A headache is very common with the flu, present in 80% of flu cases.
Sore Throat
1-Sore throat is commonly present with a cold.
2-Sore throat is not commonly present with the flu.
Chest Discomfort
1-Chest discomfort is mild to moderate with a cold.
2-Chest discomfort is often severe with the flu.
If you think you have the H1N1 flu, you should take a few common-sense steps to protect your friends, family members, and coworkers. For instance, if you feel sick, stay home until you feel better and have gone at least 24 hours without relying on medicine to break your fever.
In addition, wash your hands, linens, dishes, and so on thoroughly. And cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze--and then throw the tissue away immediately. Finally, if you have to share a small space with other people, consider wearing a facemask to help make sure you don't spread the flu to the people around you.
Follow these steps and monitor your symptoms to help stop the spread of H1N1...and remain happy and healthy!
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS
"THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS..."
Or so the famous saying goes. And when it comes to really understanding the various reports and events unfolding in the economy, it's important to take a look at the details - not just the headlines. Here's what you need to know.
On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, unexpectedly fell due to a drop in energy prices. While that seems like good news on the surface, keep in mind that next month's number could climb higher again, as oil and natural gas have both been on a tear higher lately.
In housing news, Housing Starts and Building Permits both came in a bit below expectations, but this may be a sign that builders are exercising some caution - particularly in the face of the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers that is presently set to expire on November 30th. Existing Home Sales came in better than expected - and a whopping 45% of those homes were sold to first time homebuyers - rushing to move in on that credit. Recent studies have shown that many who qualify for this tax credit aren't even aware of it...so please let me know if you or someone you know needs more information - the clock is ticking!
Additionally, the level of existing homes inventory shrunk to a 7.8 month supply, down from a recent high of 10.1 months in April.
In other news, 3rd quarter earnings season continues, where companies report their status as of the end of September. While many companies are beating expectations, it's important to realize that many of those companies achieved better earnings by cost cutting and layoffs, not from increased sales. This is a big disconnect between Wall Street and "Main Street". Stocks are rocketing higher based on these "positive" reports, but the cost cutting and job cutting measures can only go so far...you can't simultaneously grow the ranks of unemployment - and then grow your business, hoping for increased sales to those same people who are without jobs.
Last week's Jobless Claims numbers seem to confirm this as Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected. In addition, the number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since March, but this is likely the result of people's unemployment benefits expiring, without them having been able to find jobs.
Also worth noting is the news that ratings agency Moody's lead analyst, Steven Hess, said that the US needs to cut its deficit or it could lose its "AAA" rating in the next 3 to 4 years, which we have maintained since 1917! Think of all we've been through - two World Wars, the Depression, three Wall Street collapses and major terrorist attacks...yet our credit quality has maintained that AAA rating, allowing us to issue debt at the most favorable rates. Hess went on to say that if the US doesn't "get the deficit down in the next 3-4 years to a sustainable level, then the rating will be in jeopardy." And just like on a mortgage when the credit rating gets reduced, interest rates move higher. This will definitely be something we'll keep an eye on in the months ahead.
After all the week's action, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week slightly worse than where they began.
Another record sized round of Treasury auctions are on tap this week - and the massive amounts of supply that continue to flood the market can cause home loan rates to move higher, if there is ultimately not enough demand to sop up all the supply. Additionally, there are several economic reports which could be market movers. Tuesday brings both the Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Reports, the latter of which gives us an update on consumer and business consumption and buying behavior via data on items that are non-disposable, such as cars, furniture, appliances, games, cameras, business equipment, etc.
On Wednesday, there will be more news on the housing front with the New Home Sales Report, while Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Thursday also brings a read on the economy with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity. And the week could end with a bang, as Friday brings the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, found within the Personal Income Report.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds held their ground for most of the week but ultimately were unable to remain above a key technical support level. I'll be watching closely to see what happens in the week ahead - and as always, reach out to me if you or others in your network need more information or questions answered...I'm here to help.
Or so the famous saying goes. And when it comes to really understanding the various reports and events unfolding in the economy, it's important to take a look at the details - not just the headlines. Here's what you need to know.
On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, unexpectedly fell due to a drop in energy prices. While that seems like good news on the surface, keep in mind that next month's number could climb higher again, as oil and natural gas have both been on a tear higher lately.
In housing news, Housing Starts and Building Permits both came in a bit below expectations, but this may be a sign that builders are exercising some caution - particularly in the face of the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers that is presently set to expire on November 30th. Existing Home Sales came in better than expected - and a whopping 45% of those homes were sold to first time homebuyers - rushing to move in on that credit. Recent studies have shown that many who qualify for this tax credit aren't even aware of it...so please let me know if you or someone you know needs more information - the clock is ticking!
Additionally, the level of existing homes inventory shrunk to a 7.8 month supply, down from a recent high of 10.1 months in April.
In other news, 3rd quarter earnings season continues, where companies report their status as of the end of September. While many companies are beating expectations, it's important to realize that many of those companies achieved better earnings by cost cutting and layoffs, not from increased sales. This is a big disconnect between Wall Street and "Main Street". Stocks are rocketing higher based on these "positive" reports, but the cost cutting and job cutting measures can only go so far...you can't simultaneously grow the ranks of unemployment - and then grow your business, hoping for increased sales to those same people who are without jobs.
Last week's Jobless Claims numbers seem to confirm this as Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected. In addition, the number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since March, but this is likely the result of people's unemployment benefits expiring, without them having been able to find jobs.
Also worth noting is the news that ratings agency Moody's lead analyst, Steven Hess, said that the US needs to cut its deficit or it could lose its "AAA" rating in the next 3 to 4 years, which we have maintained since 1917! Think of all we've been through - two World Wars, the Depression, three Wall Street collapses and major terrorist attacks...yet our credit quality has maintained that AAA rating, allowing us to issue debt at the most favorable rates. Hess went on to say that if the US doesn't "get the deficit down in the next 3-4 years to a sustainable level, then the rating will be in jeopardy." And just like on a mortgage when the credit rating gets reduced, interest rates move higher. This will definitely be something we'll keep an eye on in the months ahead.
After all the week's action, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week slightly worse than where they began.
Another record sized round of Treasury auctions are on tap this week - and the massive amounts of supply that continue to flood the market can cause home loan rates to move higher, if there is ultimately not enough demand to sop up all the supply. Additionally, there are several economic reports which could be market movers. Tuesday brings both the Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Reports, the latter of which gives us an update on consumer and business consumption and buying behavior via data on items that are non-disposable, such as cars, furniture, appliances, games, cameras, business equipment, etc.
On Wednesday, there will be more news on the housing front with the New Home Sales Report, while Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Thursday also brings a read on the economy with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity. And the week could end with a bang, as Friday brings the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, found within the Personal Income Report.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds held their ground for most of the week but ultimately were unable to remain above a key technical support level. I'll be watching closely to see what happens in the week ahead - and as always, reach out to me if you or others in your network need more information or questions answered...I'm here to help.
For the week of October 26, 2009
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
The week ended with the terrific news that Existing Home Sales shot UP 9.4% in September to a 5.57 million annual rate. This was almost twice the increase the consensus expected and a nice boost coming off the slight drop we saw in August. Best of all, the inventory is now down to a 7.8 month supply, getting us closer and closer to the 6-month level of a normal housing market.
Earlier in the week, Housing Starts for September were UP 0.5% to an annual rate of 590,000 units. The consensus expected more, but the drag on the number all came from a drop in those volatile multi-unit starts. Single-family starts were up a strong 3.9%, their sixth gain in the last seven months and UP 40.3% since the January-February bottom. The rate of building is well below underlying demand, which some put at about 1.6 million units per year, based on population growth and the need for replacement because of fires, disasters and knock-downs.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the average contract interest rate was 5.07% with 1.13 points (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit. First time buyers have just five weeks to get in on these still great rates AND the $8,000 tax credit set to go away at the end of November.
Review of Last Week
CAN'T STAY ABOVE 10,000... It was a strange week in the stock markets, as the Dow shot past the "magic" 10,000 mark two days in a row, but a freaky Friday hammered that benchmark back down below 10,000. All three major indexes saw modest drops for the week. Some analysts said the seven-month rise in stock prices made us ready for a dive. Even analysts who are bullish long-term hinted we were due for a temporary pullback. We can be grateful these experts' wishes were fulfilled in such a modest way.
The negative yak was extra strange because Q3 corporate earnings continued to impress investors. We saw what some called "blowout results" from Apple and Amazon.com, while a long list of companies had very nice upside surprises -- outfits like American Express, AT&T, Capital One, Caterpillar, McDonald's, Texas Instruments, UPS and Yahoo! And let's not forget the strong single-family Housing Starts and very strong Existing Home Sales that show the housing recovery is moving along.
Initial Unemployment Claims inched up a bit last week, but Continuing Claims continue to fall, now down to 5.9 million. Gloomy pundits say this just shows people's unemployment benefits are expiring, but a few folks surely must be getting jobs to support the now recovering and growing economy! These pundits might want to consider Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's prediction that we'll see "...positive growth in 2010 at a level that will begin to gradually bring down the unemployment rate."
For the week, the Dow ended down 0.2%, to 9972.18; the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, to 1079.60; while the Nasdaq fell just 0.1%, to 2154.47.
It was an up-and-down week in the bond market, which ultimately ended down. Friday, investors were anticipating this week's record auctions, which could squeeze prices some more. The FNMA 30-year 4.5% bond we watch fell again from the previous week's close, ending at $100.59. Still, mortgage rates stay in historically low territory.
This Week’s Forecast
HOUSING? GDP? INFLATION?... We'll have new answers to all three questions, beginning Wednesday with New Home Sales, then Thursday we get our initial look at GDP for Q3, the first quarter that's expected to show the economy expanding again. Friday we get numbers for PCE and Core PCE, which are the Fed's favorite inflation indicators.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
The week ended with the terrific news that Existing Home Sales shot UP 9.4% in September to a 5.57 million annual rate. This was almost twice the increase the consensus expected and a nice boost coming off the slight drop we saw in August. Best of all, the inventory is now down to a 7.8 month supply, getting us closer and closer to the 6-month level of a normal housing market.
Earlier in the week, Housing Starts for September were UP 0.5% to an annual rate of 590,000 units. The consensus expected more, but the drag on the number all came from a drop in those volatile multi-unit starts. Single-family starts were up a strong 3.9%, their sixth gain in the last seven months and UP 40.3% since the January-February bottom. The rate of building is well below underlying demand, which some put at about 1.6 million units per year, based on population growth and the need for replacement because of fires, disasters and knock-downs.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the average contract interest rate was 5.07% with 1.13 points (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio loans to borrowers with good credit. First time buyers have just five weeks to get in on these still great rates AND the $8,000 tax credit set to go away at the end of November.
Review of Last Week
CAN'T STAY ABOVE 10,000... It was a strange week in the stock markets, as the Dow shot past the "magic" 10,000 mark two days in a row, but a freaky Friday hammered that benchmark back down below 10,000. All three major indexes saw modest drops for the week. Some analysts said the seven-month rise in stock prices made us ready for a dive. Even analysts who are bullish long-term hinted we were due for a temporary pullback. We can be grateful these experts' wishes were fulfilled in such a modest way.
The negative yak was extra strange because Q3 corporate earnings continued to impress investors. We saw what some called "blowout results" from Apple and Amazon.com, while a long list of companies had very nice upside surprises -- outfits like American Express, AT&T, Capital One, Caterpillar, McDonald's, Texas Instruments, UPS and Yahoo! And let's not forget the strong single-family Housing Starts and very strong Existing Home Sales that show the housing recovery is moving along.
Initial Unemployment Claims inched up a bit last week, but Continuing Claims continue to fall, now down to 5.9 million. Gloomy pundits say this just shows people's unemployment benefits are expiring, but a few folks surely must be getting jobs to support the now recovering and growing economy! These pundits might want to consider Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's prediction that we'll see "...positive growth in 2010 at a level that will begin to gradually bring down the unemployment rate."
For the week, the Dow ended down 0.2%, to 9972.18; the S&P 500 was down 0.7%, to 1079.60; while the Nasdaq fell just 0.1%, to 2154.47.
It was an up-and-down week in the bond market, which ultimately ended down. Friday, investors were anticipating this week's record auctions, which could squeeze prices some more. The FNMA 30-year 4.5% bond we watch fell again from the previous week's close, ending at $100.59. Still, mortgage rates stay in historically low territory.
This Week’s Forecast
HOUSING? GDP? INFLATION?... We'll have new answers to all three questions, beginning Wednesday with New Home Sales, then Thursday we get our initial look at GDP for Q3, the first quarter that's expected to show the economy expanding again. Friday we get numbers for PCE and Core PCE, which are the Fed's favorite inflation indicators.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Home Sale Stats!
Existing home sales rose 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units from 5.1 million units in August. The increase was largely due to the tax incentive for first-time homebuyers.
According to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index, retail sales rose 0.2% in the week ending October 17. On a year-over-year basis, retailers saw sales increase by 2.8%, the best showing in a year.
The producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, rose 0.6% in September, following a 1.7% increase in August. For the year, wholesale prices are down 4.8%.
The Commerce Department reported that the combined construction of new single-family homes and apartments in September increased 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. That was less than the 610,000 economists had expected.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 11,000 to 531,000 in the week ending October 17. The figure was higher than the 515,000 that economists had forecast. The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits in the week ending October 10 fell by 98,000 to 5.92 million.
The index of leading economic indicators — designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months — rose 1% in September after a revised 0.4% gain in August. It was the sixth straight monthly increase and marks the largest six-month gain in 26 years.
The National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo housing market index fell one point in October to 18. The decrease reflects the soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time homebuyers that boosted home sales earlier this year. An index reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on consumer confidence on October 27, new home sales on October 28 and gross domestic product on October 29.
According to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index, retail sales rose 0.2% in the week ending October 17. On a year-over-year basis, retailers saw sales increase by 2.8%, the best showing in a year.
The producer price index, which tracks wholesale prices, rose 0.6% in September, following a 1.7% increase in August. For the year, wholesale prices are down 4.8%.
The Commerce Department reported that the combined construction of new single-family homes and apartments in September increased 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units. That was less than the 610,000 economists had expected.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 11,000 to 531,000 in the week ending October 17. The figure was higher than the 515,000 that economists had forecast. The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits in the week ending October 10 fell by 98,000 to 5.92 million.
The index of leading economic indicators — designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months — rose 1% in September after a revised 0.4% gain in August. It was the sixth straight monthly increase and marks the largest six-month gain in 26 years.
The National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo housing market index fell one point in October to 18. The decrease reflects the soon-to-expire tax credit for first-time homebuyers that boosted home sales earlier this year. An index reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on consumer confidence on October 27, new home sales on October 28 and gross domestic product on October 29.
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