Daily Quotes Nov. 5 2010!
"Don't ever be afraid to admit you were wrong. It's like saying you're
wiser today than you were yesterday."
-- Robert Newell, humorist
"I am willing to put myself through anything; temporary pain or
discomfort means nothing to me as long as I can see that the experience
will take me to a new level."
-- Diana Nyad, swimmer
"If you want to conquer fear, don't sit at home and think about it. Go
out and get busy. "
-- Dale Carnegie, motivational expert
"Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because
your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely
what others think you are."
-- John Wooden, basketball coach
"Deal first with whatever is causing you the greatest emotional
distress. Often this will break the logjam in your work and free you up
mentally to complete (the) other tasks."
-- Brian Tracy, motivational coach
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Friday, November 5, 2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
November Newsletter and Reminder-Brian Betts
Wow! It is almost time for the Holliday season! Can you believe it?
I hope you had more treats the tricks on Halloween. I ate way to much candy as usual!
Don’t forget to “Fall back” 1 hour on November 7th this year!
My 1st born Brian E. Betts II “Deuce” will be 1 on Nov. 23! I can’t believe he is already 1! Time just fly’s to fast now!
As far as Real Estate, 634 homes Sold in the Salt Lake Valley in October. Rates are still low and so are home prices! Don’t forget you can still get the 1 Year Home Warranty for free from me is you buy or sell a home with me until the end of the year! You can start your search at www.bettshomes.com and search out ALL the active listings in Utah 24/7! Call me and we can go look at these homes in person!
Thank you for all your referrals of your friends and family that you trust me with. It’ is because of you that I am able to stay in business.
Remember to Use www.bettshomes.com to search out the active listings in Utah, or you can go to www.brianebetts.com for a Wealth of Information!
Food For Thought! When I came into the Real Estate World in the Beginning of 2006 there were almost 13,000 Realtors in Business in the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, now there are about 5,000! That should let you know what’s going on! To let you know as well, I’m not going anywhere! I will still be in business for the foreseeable future and will be able to service you for years to come.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
I hope you had more treats the tricks on Halloween. I ate way to much candy as usual!
Don’t forget to “Fall back” 1 hour on November 7th this year!
My 1st born Brian E. Betts II “Deuce” will be 1 on Nov. 23! I can’t believe he is already 1! Time just fly’s to fast now!
As far as Real Estate, 634 homes Sold in the Salt Lake Valley in October. Rates are still low and so are home prices! Don’t forget you can still get the 1 Year Home Warranty for free from me is you buy or sell a home with me until the end of the year! You can start your search at www.bettshomes.com and search out ALL the active listings in Utah 24/7! Call me and we can go look at these homes in person!
Thank you for all your referrals of your friends and family that you trust me with. It’ is because of you that I am able to stay in business.
Remember to Use www.bettshomes.com to search out the active listings in Utah, or you can go to www.brianebetts.com for a Wealth of Information!
Food For Thought! When I came into the Real Estate World in the Beginning of 2006 there were almost 13,000 Realtors in Business in the Salt Lake Board of Realtors, now there are about 5,000! That should let you know what’s going on! To let you know as well, I’m not going anywhere! I will still be in business for the foreseeable future and will be able to service you for years to come.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Daily Quotes Nov. 4 2010!
Daily Quotes Nov. 4 2010!
"You can easily judge the character of others by how they treat those
who can do nothing for them or to them."
-- Malcolm Forbes, publisher
"All men who have achieved great things have been great dreamers."
-- Orison Swett Marden, writer
"Life is the sum of all your choices."
-- Albert Camus, Author
"I don't think that once you get to one level, you can relax. You've got to keep pushing. "
-- Larry Bird, basketball player
"Character is built daily by the way one thinks and acts - thought by
thought, action by action."
-- Helen Douglas, legislator
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
"You can easily judge the character of others by how they treat those
who can do nothing for them or to them."
-- Malcolm Forbes, publisher
"All men who have achieved great things have been great dreamers."
-- Orison Swett Marden, writer
"Life is the sum of all your choices."
-- Albert Camus, Author
"I don't think that once you get to one level, you can relax. You've got to keep pushing. "
-- Larry Bird, basketball player
"Character is built daily by the way one thinks and acts - thought by
thought, action by action."
-- Helen Douglas, legislator
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
For the week of November 1, 2010
For the week of November 1, 2010
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last week's big rush of housing news began on Monday with Existing Home Sales for September UP 10% from the month before. The annual rate hit 4.53 million. This was the second straight monthly gain after July's record low following the expiration of the tax credits. The national median price for existing homes is now at $171,700, down 2.4% from a year ago. Unsold inventory dropped 1.9% from the prior month to a 10.7 months' supply.
Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes came in weaker for August, also seen as a result of the expiration of the tax credits. The 10-city index was down 0.1% for the month and the 20-city index off 0.2%. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's monthly house price index showed U.S. home prices falling 2.4% from August a year ago and 13.7% off their April 2007 peak. This index only tracks the prices of homes purchased with mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
Wednesday, New Home Sales for September were UP 6.6%, coming off record lows in July and August. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 307,000, which is down 21.5% from a year ago. Good news came with the median new home price rising 3.3% from the year before, now at $223,800. The supply also came in at 8 months, with the actual number of unsold new homes the lowest it's been since 1968.
Review of Last Week
FLAT WEEK, UP MONTH... Investors on Wall Street kept things in check last week, leaving the Dow down by a whisker, the S&P 500 dead flat, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up a modest 1.1%. Observers felt traders were awaiting this week's midterm elections and then Wednesday's Fed meeting statement regarding its next round of quantitative easing to spur growth. For the month, stocks did quite nicely with the S&P 500 up 3.7%; the Dow up 3%, its best October since 2006; and the Nasdaq up 5.9%, its best October in seven years.
In the week's economic news, a plus always seemed to come with a minus. For example, Consumer Confidence was up in October, but it still remains at historically low levels. This is occurring over a year since the economy transitioned from recession to recovery, at least as measured by overall growth. Durable Goods Orders were up 3.3% in September, but it all came from aircraft and parts. Exclude those, and orders were down 0.8% for the month.
It was somewhat encouraging to see weekly jobless claims dropping for the third straight week. This put them at their lowest level since July, but still in troublesome territory above 400,000. Finally, the advanced estimate of Q3 GDP came in at 2.0% annual growth. This was in line with expectations and shows the economy is in fact growing. But 2% is well below the growth rate economists say we need to make a significant dent in the unemployment rate.
For the week, the Dow was down 0.1%, to 11118.49; the S&P 500 ended flat, at 1183.26; but the Nasdaq was UP 1.1%, to 2507.41.
Bond prices dipped for a good part of the week, then rebounded, but not quite enough. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 10 basis points for the week, closing at $103.02. National average mortgage rates for most mortgages remain at historically low levels. A cautionary note: the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates of 30-year fixed-rated mortgages will begin rising next year.
This Week’s Forecast
HEARING FROM THE FEDS, WAITING FOR THE JOBS... There are plenty of economic reports to ponder this week, but two items stand out. The Fed will be meeting on Wednesday and while no one expects the Fed Funds rate to go up, everyone will be looking for indications of when the Fed will start its second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) and how much money will get thrown into the system. The other point of interest will be the October jobs report on Friday. The forecast is for payrolls to be up by 45,000 jobs, which isn't very many, but at least it's a positive number, though the unemployment rate is predicted to hold at 9.6%.
Highlights of the remaining economic news include the PCE inflation reading expected to stay at 0.4%, and ISM predicted down a little, though still showing manufacturing expanding. The week ends with Friday's Pending Home Sales for September, forecast to be up 0.5%, a good thing but not quite as good as August's hike of over 4%.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last week's big rush of housing news began on Monday with Existing Home Sales for September UP 10% from the month before. The annual rate hit 4.53 million. This was the second straight monthly gain after July's record low following the expiration of the tax credits. The national median price for existing homes is now at $171,700, down 2.4% from a year ago. Unsold inventory dropped 1.9% from the prior month to a 10.7 months' supply.
Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes came in weaker for August, also seen as a result of the expiration of the tax credits. The 10-city index was down 0.1% for the month and the 20-city index off 0.2%. The Federal Housing Finance Agency's monthly house price index showed U.S. home prices falling 2.4% from August a year ago and 13.7% off their April 2007 peak. This index only tracks the prices of homes purchased with mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
Wednesday, New Home Sales for September were UP 6.6%, coming off record lows in July and August. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 307,000, which is down 21.5% from a year ago. Good news came with the median new home price rising 3.3% from the year before, now at $223,800. The supply also came in at 8 months, with the actual number of unsold new homes the lowest it's been since 1968.
Review of Last Week
FLAT WEEK, UP MONTH... Investors on Wall Street kept things in check last week, leaving the Dow down by a whisker, the S&P 500 dead flat, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up a modest 1.1%. Observers felt traders were awaiting this week's midterm elections and then Wednesday's Fed meeting statement regarding its next round of quantitative easing to spur growth. For the month, stocks did quite nicely with the S&P 500 up 3.7%; the Dow up 3%, its best October since 2006; and the Nasdaq up 5.9%, its best October in seven years.
In the week's economic news, a plus always seemed to come with a minus. For example, Consumer Confidence was up in October, but it still remains at historically low levels. This is occurring over a year since the economy transitioned from recession to recovery, at least as measured by overall growth. Durable Goods Orders were up 3.3% in September, but it all came from aircraft and parts. Exclude those, and orders were down 0.8% for the month.
It was somewhat encouraging to see weekly jobless claims dropping for the third straight week. This put them at their lowest level since July, but still in troublesome territory above 400,000. Finally, the advanced estimate of Q3 GDP came in at 2.0% annual growth. This was in line with expectations and shows the economy is in fact growing. But 2% is well below the growth rate economists say we need to make a significant dent in the unemployment rate.
For the week, the Dow was down 0.1%, to 11118.49; the S&P 500 ended flat, at 1183.26; but the Nasdaq was UP 1.1%, to 2507.41.
Bond prices dipped for a good part of the week, then rebounded, but not quite enough. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 10 basis points for the week, closing at $103.02. National average mortgage rates for most mortgages remain at historically low levels. A cautionary note: the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts rates of 30-year fixed-rated mortgages will begin rising next year.
This Week’s Forecast
HEARING FROM THE FEDS, WAITING FOR THE JOBS... There are plenty of economic reports to ponder this week, but two items stand out. The Fed will be meeting on Wednesday and while no one expects the Fed Funds rate to go up, everyone will be looking for indications of when the Fed will start its second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) and how much money will get thrown into the system. The other point of interest will be the October jobs report on Friday. The forecast is for payrolls to be up by 45,000 jobs, which isn't very many, but at least it's a positive number, though the unemployment rate is predicted to hold at 9.6%.
Highlights of the remaining economic news include the PCE inflation reading expected to stay at 0.4%, and ISM predicted down a little, though still showing manufacturing expanding. The week ends with Friday's Pending Home Sales for September, forecast to be up 0.5%, a good thing but not quite as good as August's hike of over 4%.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Last Week in the News November 1, 2010
Last Week in the News November 1, 2010
Existing home sales rose 10% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million units from a revised 4.12 million units in August. The inventory of unsold homes on the market declined 1.9% to 4.04 million, a 10.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 12-month supply in August.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index — on a seasonally adjusted basis — fell 0.3% in August after a 0.2% decrease in July. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 1.7% compared with August 2009.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending October 22 rose 3.2%. Refinancing applications increased 3%. Purchase volume rose 3.9%.
Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — rose 3.3% in September after decreasing a revised 1% in August. Excluding volatile transportation-related goods, orders posted a monthly decrease of 0.8%.
New home sales rose 6.6% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000 units from a rate of 288,000 units in August. Economists had expected a pace of 300,000 units.
The Commerce Department announced that gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — increased at an annual rate of 2% in the third quarter of 2010.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 to 434,000 for the week ending October 23. Continuing claims for the week ending October 16 fell by 122,000 to 4.35 million, the lowest level since the recovery began.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending on November 1, factory orders on November 3 and pending home sales on November 5.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Existing home sales rose 10% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million units from a revised 4.12 million units in August. The inventory of unsold homes on the market declined 1.9% to 4.04 million, a 10.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 12-month supply in August.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index — on a seasonally adjusted basis — fell 0.3% in August after a 0.2% decrease in July. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 1.7% compared with August 2009.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending October 22 rose 3.2%. Refinancing applications increased 3%. Purchase volume rose 3.9%.
Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — rose 3.3% in September after decreasing a revised 1% in August. Excluding volatile transportation-related goods, orders posted a monthly decrease of 0.8%.
New home sales rose 6.6% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000 units from a rate of 288,000 units in August. Economists had expected a pace of 300,000 units.
The Commerce Department announced that gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — increased at an annual rate of 2% in the third quarter of 2010.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 to 434,000 for the week ending October 23. Continuing claims for the week ending October 16 fell by 122,000 to 4.35 million, the lowest level since the recovery began.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending on November 1, factory orders on November 3 and pending home sales on November 5.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
MBA Forecast for 2011 & 2012
MBA Forecast for 2011 & 2012
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects to see mortgage originations fall from an estimated $1.4 trillion in 2010 to slightly under $1 trillion in 2011, due mostly to a decline in refinance originations. However, the MBA also expects to see an increase in purchase originations next year.
The economy will grow at a slow pace but will see no significant job growth until 2011. The increase in purchase originations will be driven by modest increases in home sales and stabilizing home prices.
In contrast, MBA refinance originations are expected to fall steadily as mortgage rates gradually increase throughout 2011 and 2012.
The MBA predicts that total existing home sales for 2010 will be around 8% lower than in 2009, despite a boost to sales in the first half of the year from the home-buyer tax credit. Existing-home sales are projected to increase modestly in 2011, increasing by a little less than 2%, before increasing by about 16% in 2012. New-home sales for 2010 will be down by about 13% relative to 2009, although the MBA expects a slow recovery in 2011, increasing around 20% from a low base and then increasing 40% in 2012.
"Economic growth in 2010 has been subdued and this trend will likely continue for most of 2011," says Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president for research and economics. "Households remain cautious given the weak job market. On top of that, uncertainty regarding tax rates for next year, and the potential for tax withholding to increase at the beginning of the year, led us to forecast that consumer spending will remain weak, particularly in the first half of 2011."
The MBA also reports that fixed mortgage rates will average about 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, increase to 5.1% by the end of 2011, and head toward 5.7% in 2012. Purchase originations for 2010 will be $480 billion - about 28% below the 2009 level of $665 billion - but the MBA expects them to rise about 30% in 2011, as existing home sales recover and home prices stabilize, and should rise again in 2012 to $877 billion.
Refinance originations will end 2010 at $921 billion - a decrease of 31% from $1.3 trillion in 2009, the MBA adds, while refinance activity will decrease by 60% in 2011 to about $370 billion as mortgage rates increase and the pool of eligible borrowers shrinks, and will fall further to $310 billion in 2012.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects to see mortgage originations fall from an estimated $1.4 trillion in 2010 to slightly under $1 trillion in 2011, due mostly to a decline in refinance originations. However, the MBA also expects to see an increase in purchase originations next year.
The economy will grow at a slow pace but will see no significant job growth until 2011. The increase in purchase originations will be driven by modest increases in home sales and stabilizing home prices.
In contrast, MBA refinance originations are expected to fall steadily as mortgage rates gradually increase throughout 2011 and 2012.
The MBA predicts that total existing home sales for 2010 will be around 8% lower than in 2009, despite a boost to sales in the first half of the year from the home-buyer tax credit. Existing-home sales are projected to increase modestly in 2011, increasing by a little less than 2%, before increasing by about 16% in 2012. New-home sales for 2010 will be down by about 13% relative to 2009, although the MBA expects a slow recovery in 2011, increasing around 20% from a low base and then increasing 40% in 2012.
"Economic growth in 2010 has been subdued and this trend will likely continue for most of 2011," says Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist and senior vice president for research and economics. "Households remain cautious given the weak job market. On top of that, uncertainty regarding tax rates for next year, and the potential for tax withholding to increase at the beginning of the year, led us to forecast that consumer spending will remain weak, particularly in the first half of 2011."
The MBA also reports that fixed mortgage rates will average about 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2010, increase to 5.1% by the end of 2011, and head toward 5.7% in 2012. Purchase originations for 2010 will be $480 billion - about 28% below the 2009 level of $665 billion - but the MBA expects them to rise about 30% in 2011, as existing home sales recover and home prices stabilize, and should rise again in 2012 to $877 billion.
Refinance originations will end 2010 at $921 billion - a decrease of 31% from $1.3 trillion in 2009, the MBA adds, while refinance activity will decrease by 60% in 2011 to about $370 billion as mortgage rates increase and the pool of eligible borrowers shrinks, and will fall further to $310 billion in 2012.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Doing the Math Shows Homes are Affordable
Doing the Math Shows Homes are Affordable
Housing economist, Karl Case, urges American’s to “do the math” to see how affordable homes are now. Home prices and mortgage rates both have fallen in recent years, he explains.
Combining s smaller home with a lower interest rate produces big savings. Case estimates that a buyer today could have a payment which is almost half what someone purchasing the same home four years ago would owe.
“Down payments are smaller when your purchase price has been reduced,” adds Case. “Buying a home now can make a lot of sense. Housing has perhaps never been a better bargain.”
Also, since mortgage rates have hit new all-time lows this year, existing home owners are refinancing and saving each month. Reducing monthly housing costs has the same effect as earning larger paycheck.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Housing economist, Karl Case, urges American’s to “do the math” to see how affordable homes are now. Home prices and mortgage rates both have fallen in recent years, he explains.
Combining s smaller home with a lower interest rate produces big savings. Case estimates that a buyer today could have a payment which is almost half what someone purchasing the same home four years ago would owe.
“Down payments are smaller when your purchase price has been reduced,” adds Case. “Buying a home now can make a lot of sense. Housing has perhaps never been a better bargain.”
Also, since mortgage rates have hit new all-time lows this year, existing home owners are refinancing and saving each month. Reducing monthly housing costs has the same effect as earning larger paycheck.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
For the week of October 25, 2010
For the week of October 25, 2010
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last week saw September Housing Starts UP 0.3% to an annual rate of 610,000 units, well ahead of the expected 580,000 unit pace. Even better, starts are UP 4.1% over a year ago. Interestingly, the September gain was totally driven by a healthy 4.4% rise in single family starts, while multi-family starts dropped 9.7%. But multi-family starts are volatile month to month, and are actually up 100.0% compared to a year ago, while single family starts are off 10.8% during the same time frame.
Builders remain cautious, as new Building Permits for September dropped 5.6%, to a 539,000 annual rate. This number of course reflects plans for builder activity a few months out. Nonetheless, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported builder confidence rose in October for the first time in five months. This brings it to a level not seen since June. The NAHB's chief economist feels the new home market is now past the quiet period that followed the expiration of the home buyer tax credits and the summer slowdown in the economy.
Review of Last Week
UP WITH VOLATILITY... It was not a quiet week on Wall Street, with a big move down in stock prices, which then came back up. But the markets did close up four out of the five days, so the week ended with all three major indexes ahead once again. Investors focused on a pile of pretty good corporate earnings results, but there were some less than stellar economic reports to get through too.
Industrial Production was off 0.2% in September, below estimates, though production is up at a 4.9% annual rate for the last six months. Capacity Utilization also dipped down to 74.7% for September, although it's still 6.5 percentage points above the low it hit back in June 2009. Countering these figures, the Philadelphia Fed Index for manufacturing in that region was back into positive territory. Leading Economic Indicators were up 0.3% for the month and weekly jobless claims fell a bit, though they're still well above 400,000.
The good news came in corporate earnings, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies reporting including 12 of the Dow components. The financials did well, with 21 out of 27 reporting better than expected earnings per share. In the tech sector, Apple and IBM also did nicely in the earnings department. Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, and airlines also showed gains. Even though the recovery has slowed, the vast majority of public companies continue to make good profit numbers.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.6%, to 11132.56; the S&P 500 was also UP 0.6%, to 1183.08; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.4%, to 2479.39.
Trading ranges in the bond market didn't go too wide, as investors stayed interested enough to keep prices up. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 12 basis points for the week, closing at $103.12. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates for most mortgages remaining at historically low levels.
This Week’s Forecast
NOTHING SCARY... As we head into Halloween this week, it looks like nothing too frightening will be reported on the economic front. Monday's Existing Home Sales are projected up for September, just like September New Home Sales are expected to report come Wednesday. Friday, we get the Advanced Q3 GDP numbers, which economists are forecasting to be modestly positive.
Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday are both projected to be up a tiny bit. Friday's Employment Cost Index should continue with modest growth, while the Chicago PMI is predicted to show a small decline in manufacturing in that region of the country.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months As economists debate how big the second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) will be, they're all in agreement that the Fed Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for quite a bit more time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last week saw September Housing Starts UP 0.3% to an annual rate of 610,000 units, well ahead of the expected 580,000 unit pace. Even better, starts are UP 4.1% over a year ago. Interestingly, the September gain was totally driven by a healthy 4.4% rise in single family starts, while multi-family starts dropped 9.7%. But multi-family starts are volatile month to month, and are actually up 100.0% compared to a year ago, while single family starts are off 10.8% during the same time frame.
Builders remain cautious, as new Building Permits for September dropped 5.6%, to a 539,000 annual rate. This number of course reflects plans for builder activity a few months out. Nonetheless, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported builder confidence rose in October for the first time in five months. This brings it to a level not seen since June. The NAHB's chief economist feels the new home market is now past the quiet period that followed the expiration of the home buyer tax credits and the summer slowdown in the economy.
Review of Last Week
UP WITH VOLATILITY... It was not a quiet week on Wall Street, with a big move down in stock prices, which then came back up. But the markets did close up four out of the five days, so the week ended with all three major indexes ahead once again. Investors focused on a pile of pretty good corporate earnings results, but there were some less than stellar economic reports to get through too.
Industrial Production was off 0.2% in September, below estimates, though production is up at a 4.9% annual rate for the last six months. Capacity Utilization also dipped down to 74.7% for September, although it's still 6.5 percentage points above the low it hit back in June 2009. Countering these figures, the Philadelphia Fed Index for manufacturing in that region was back into positive territory. Leading Economic Indicators were up 0.3% for the month and weekly jobless claims fell a bit, though they're still well above 400,000.
The good news came in corporate earnings, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies reporting including 12 of the Dow components. The financials did well, with 21 out of 27 reporting better than expected earnings per share. In the tech sector, Apple and IBM also did nicely in the earnings department. Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, and airlines also showed gains. Even though the recovery has slowed, the vast majority of public companies continue to make good profit numbers.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.6%, to 11132.56; the S&P 500 was also UP 0.6%, to 1183.08; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.4%, to 2479.39.
Trading ranges in the bond market didn't go too wide, as investors stayed interested enough to keep prices up. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended UP 12 basis points for the week, closing at $103.12. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates for most mortgages remaining at historically low levels.
This Week’s Forecast
NOTHING SCARY... As we head into Halloween this week, it looks like nothing too frightening will be reported on the economic front. Monday's Existing Home Sales are projected up for September, just like September New Home Sales are expected to report come Wednesday. Friday, we get the Advanced Q3 GDP numbers, which economists are forecasting to be modestly positive.
Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday are both projected to be up a tiny bit. Friday's Employment Cost Index should continue with modest growth, while the Chicago PMI is predicted to show a small decline in manufacturing in that region of the country.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months As economists debate how big the second round of quantitative easing (QE-2) will be, they're all in agreement that the Fed Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for quite a bit more time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Last Week in the News October 25, 2010
Last Week in the News October 25, 2010
Industrial production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2% in September, following a 0.2% increase in August. Economists had anticipated a gain of 0.2%. Capacity utilization fell to 74.7% in September from a revised 74.8% in August.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose three points in October to 16. Economists had anticipated a reading of 14. An index reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market.
According to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index, retail sales fell 0.7% for the week ending October 16. On a year-over-year basis, retailers saw sales increase 1.7%, the weakest reading since May.
The combined construction of new single-family homes and apartments in September rose 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units. Single-family starts rose 4.4%. Multifamily starts dropped 9.7%. Applications for new building permits, seen as an indicator of future activity, fell 5.6% to an annual rate of 539,000 units.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending October 15 fell 10.5%. Refinancing applications decreased 11.2%. Purchase volume fell 6.7%.
The index of leading economic indicators — designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months — rose 0.3% in September after a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in August.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 23,000 to 452,000 for the week ending October 16. Continuing claims for the week ending October 9 fell by 9,000 to 4.39 million, the lowest level since the recovery began.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on existing home sales on October 25, the housing price index on October 26 and new home sales on October 27.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Relator you want!
Industrial production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell 0.2% in September, following a 0.2% increase in August. Economists had anticipated a gain of 0.2%. Capacity utilization fell to 74.7% in September from a revised 74.8% in August.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose three points in October to 16. Economists had anticipated a reading of 14. An index reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market.
According to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index, retail sales fell 0.7% for the week ending October 16. On a year-over-year basis, retailers saw sales increase 1.7%, the weakest reading since May.
The combined construction of new single-family homes and apartments in September rose 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units. Single-family starts rose 4.4%. Multifamily starts dropped 9.7%. Applications for new building permits, seen as an indicator of future activity, fell 5.6% to an annual rate of 539,000 units.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending October 15 fell 10.5%. Refinancing applications decreased 11.2%. Purchase volume fell 6.7%.
The index of leading economic indicators — designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months — rose 0.3% in September after a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in August.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 23,000 to 452,000 for the week ending October 16. Continuing claims for the week ending October 9 fell by 9,000 to 4.39 million, the lowest level since the recovery began.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on existing home sales on October 25, the housing price index on October 26 and new home sales on October 27.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Relator you want!
How Much Equity Do I Have?
How Much Equity Do Local Homeowners Have?
Homeowner equity for median homes in 154 metro areas varies considerably depending on location, according to a recent NAR report. An analysis of these median homes in 154 metro areas over a five-year period (2004 – 2009) reveals:
87 metro areas experienced price appreciation.
In 13 metro areas, a median buyer with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage accumulated an average of more than $50,000 in equity.
67 metro areas experienced price depreciation.
In 11 metro areas — all located in California, Nevada and Florida — a median buyer with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was underwater more than $50,000.
Over the last 10 years, the price and equity picture is much brighter. Median buyers in the top 29 metro areas could have accumulated at least $100,000 or more in equity. Interestingly, four of the six California cities that have had the biggest equity losses over the last five years are among the biggest gainers over a 10-year horizon. Only 12 of 154 metro areas experienced price depreciation over this 10-year period, and only seven areas — concentrated in Ohio and Michigan — saw a decline substantial enough to leave a median buyer underwater.
Over an even longer term, we see positive equity build-up in all areas. For example, in 75 of the 154 areas, a buyer who bought at the median price 20 years ago would have over $100,000 in equity in their home. In an additional 67 areas, the buyer would have more than $50,000 in equity. Take a look at overall performance in your metro area by visiting NAR's Metro-Area Housing Equity Reports page.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Homeowner equity for median homes in 154 metro areas varies considerably depending on location, according to a recent NAR report. An analysis of these median homes in 154 metro areas over a five-year period (2004 – 2009) reveals:
87 metro areas experienced price appreciation.
In 13 metro areas, a median buyer with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage accumulated an average of more than $50,000 in equity.
67 metro areas experienced price depreciation.
In 11 metro areas — all located in California, Nevada and Florida — a median buyer with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was underwater more than $50,000.
Over the last 10 years, the price and equity picture is much brighter. Median buyers in the top 29 metro areas could have accumulated at least $100,000 or more in equity. Interestingly, four of the six California cities that have had the biggest equity losses over the last five years are among the biggest gainers over a 10-year horizon. Only 12 of 154 metro areas experienced price depreciation over this 10-year period, and only seven areas — concentrated in Ohio and Michigan — saw a decline substantial enough to leave a median buyer underwater.
Over an even longer term, we see positive equity build-up in all areas. For example, in 75 of the 154 areas, a buyer who bought at the median price 20 years ago would have over $100,000 in equity in their home. In an additional 67 areas, the buyer would have more than $50,000 in equity. Take a look at overall performance in your metro area by visiting NAR's Metro-Area Housing Equity Reports page.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
For the week of October 18, 2010
For the week of October 18, 2010
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Mortgage rates, already at historically low levels, have been sliding even further the last few weeks. Nonetheless, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed purchase applications down a bit from the week before.
But happily, applications for conventional purchase loans are actually at their highest level since the start of May, following the home buyer tax credit expiration on April 30. Of course, with today's super low rates, demand for refinancings are also up -- a healthy 24% over the week before, with refinance application volumes now close to their highest level all year.
Review of Last Week
ANOTHER WEEK UP... Yup, the stock market maintained its steady cruise upward, begun in September and continuing now for the first two weeks in October. Investors on Wall Street seem to be staying in positive, if cautious mode. The economy sends mixed signals, but stocks push relentlessly upward. All three major market indexes were up for the week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the pack, delivering a very strong 2.8% gain, helped by good Q3 numbers from Intel and Google!
On the negative side, the trade deficit expanded by $3.8 billion in August to $46.3 billion, which was larger than anticipated. New claims for unemployment insurance also increased by 13,000. Continuing claims, however, dropped to their lowest level in almost two years, but it's unfortunately still a big number, at 4.399 million. Wholesale inflation inched ahead a bit, with the Producer Price Index up 0.4% in September and up 4.0% compared to a year ago. This, of course, isn't great, although worries about deflation should be less in the headlines.
For good news, we saw consumer inflation stay well under control, with consumer prices edging up just 0.1% in September. This was less than expected and up only 1.1%versus a year ago, well within the Fed's guidelines. Core consumer prices, which leave out food and energy, were unchanged for the month. These steady prices may be why retail sales were up 0.6% for the month, better than expected and giving evidence the consumer is trying to help the recovery.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.5%, to 11062.78; the S&P 500 was also UP 0.9%, to 1176.19; and the Nasdaq was UP 2.8%, to 2468.77.
It was a volatile week in the bond market, but prices held up well enough in certain areas. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down just 6 basis points for the week, closing at $103.00. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates for most mortgages trickling lower for another week, staying at historically low levels.
This Week’s Forecast
BUILDING PRODUCTS, BUILDING HOMES...This week's economic reports begin and end with manufacturing readings, which are expected to still show a slow recovery. Monday's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are expected to stay flat for September. Thursday we get the Philadelphia Fed Index of the state of manufacturing in that region, forecast to nudge up into positive territory.
In addition to building products, we'll also get a look at building homes. Tuesday's September Housing Starts should be down a bit from August and still hovering at a modest rate below 600,000. September Building Permits, showing how builders are feeling further out, are expected to be slightly under the Housing Starts number, indicating still cautious attitudes in that industry.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months With Fed chairman Ben Bernanke last Friday all but promising a second round of quantitative easing (QE-2), economists do not expect the Fed Funds Rate to move off its rock bottom level for quite some time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Mortgage rates, already at historically low levels, have been sliding even further the last few weeks. Nonetheless, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed purchase applications down a bit from the week before.
But happily, applications for conventional purchase loans are actually at their highest level since the start of May, following the home buyer tax credit expiration on April 30. Of course, with today's super low rates, demand for refinancings are also up -- a healthy 24% over the week before, with refinance application volumes now close to their highest level all year.
Review of Last Week
ANOTHER WEEK UP... Yup, the stock market maintained its steady cruise upward, begun in September and continuing now for the first two weeks in October. Investors on Wall Street seem to be staying in positive, if cautious mode. The economy sends mixed signals, but stocks push relentlessly upward. All three major market indexes were up for the week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the pack, delivering a very strong 2.8% gain, helped by good Q3 numbers from Intel and Google!
On the negative side, the trade deficit expanded by $3.8 billion in August to $46.3 billion, which was larger than anticipated. New claims for unemployment insurance also increased by 13,000. Continuing claims, however, dropped to their lowest level in almost two years, but it's unfortunately still a big number, at 4.399 million. Wholesale inflation inched ahead a bit, with the Producer Price Index up 0.4% in September and up 4.0% compared to a year ago. This, of course, isn't great, although worries about deflation should be less in the headlines.
For good news, we saw consumer inflation stay well under control, with consumer prices edging up just 0.1% in September. This was less than expected and up only 1.1%versus a year ago, well within the Fed's guidelines. Core consumer prices, which leave out food and energy, were unchanged for the month. These steady prices may be why retail sales were up 0.6% for the month, better than expected and giving evidence the consumer is trying to help the recovery.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.5%, to 11062.78; the S&P 500 was also UP 0.9%, to 1176.19; and the Nasdaq was UP 2.8%, to 2468.77.
It was a volatile week in the bond market, but prices held up well enough in certain areas. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down just 6 basis points for the week, closing at $103.00. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates for most mortgages trickling lower for another week, staying at historically low levels.
This Week’s Forecast
BUILDING PRODUCTS, BUILDING HOMES...This week's economic reports begin and end with manufacturing readings, which are expected to still show a slow recovery. Monday's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are expected to stay flat for September. Thursday we get the Philadelphia Fed Index of the state of manufacturing in that region, forecast to nudge up into positive territory.
In addition to building products, we'll also get a look at building homes. Tuesday's September Housing Starts should be down a bit from August and still hovering at a modest rate below 600,000. September Building Permits, showing how builders are feeling further out, are expected to be slightly under the Housing Starts number, indicating still cautious attitudes in that industry.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months With Fed chairman Ben Bernanke last Friday all but promising a second round of quantitative easing (QE-2), economists do not expect the Fed Funds Rate to move off its rock bottom level for quite some time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Last Week in the News October 18, 2010
Last Week in the News October 18, 2010
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending October 8 rose 14.6%. Refinancing applications jumped 21%. Purchase volume fell 8.5%.
The trade deficit increased 8.8% to $46.3 billion in August. Economists had expected the trade deficit to rise to $44.3 billion. Exports rose 0.2% to $153.9 billion. Imports increased 2.1% to $200.2 billion.
The producer price index, which tracks wholesale price inflation, rose 0.4% in September, matching a 0.4% increase in August. Core prices — excluding food and fuel — rose 0.1%, also matching a 0.1% increase in August. For the year, seasonally adjusted wholesale prices are up 4%.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in September after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in August. Economists had anticipated retail sales to rise 0.5% in September.
Total business inventories rose 0.6% in August, following a revised 1.1% increase in July. Total business sales rose 0.1% in August after a 0.8% increase in July.
Consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in September, following a 0.3% increase in August. For the year, seasonally adjusted consumer prices are up 1.1%.
The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October's preliminary reading fell to 67.9 from 68.2 in September.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 to 462,000 for the week ending October 9. Continuing claims for the week ending October 2 fell by 112,000 to 4.39 million, the lowest level since November 2008.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on the housing market index on October 18, housing starts on October 19 and the index of leading economic indicators on October 21.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending October 8 rose 14.6%. Refinancing applications jumped 21%. Purchase volume fell 8.5%.
The trade deficit increased 8.8% to $46.3 billion in August. Economists had expected the trade deficit to rise to $44.3 billion. Exports rose 0.2% to $153.9 billion. Imports increased 2.1% to $200.2 billion.
The producer price index, which tracks wholesale price inflation, rose 0.4% in September, matching a 0.4% increase in August. Core prices — excluding food and fuel — rose 0.1%, also matching a 0.1% increase in August. For the year, seasonally adjusted wholesale prices are up 4%.
Retail sales rose 0.6% in September after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in August. Economists had anticipated retail sales to rise 0.5% in September.
Total business inventories rose 0.6% in August, following a revised 1.1% increase in July. Total business sales rose 0.1% in August after a 0.8% increase in July.
Consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in September, following a 0.3% increase in August. For the year, seasonally adjusted consumer prices are up 1.1%.
The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October's preliminary reading fell to 67.9 from 68.2 in September.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 to 462,000 for the week ending October 9. Continuing claims for the week ending October 2 fell by 112,000 to 4.39 million, the lowest level since November 2008.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on the housing market index on October 18, housing starts on October 19 and the index of leading economic indicators on October 21.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Daily Quotes!
Daily Quotes Nov. 2 2010!
"A good goal is like a strenuous exercise - it makes you stretch."
-- Mary Kay Ash, cosmetics pioneer
"Only when we are no longer afraid do we begin to live."
-- Dorothy Thompson, journalist
"Someone has well said, "Success is a journey, not a destination."
Happiness is to be found along the way, not at the end of the road."
-- Robert Updegraff, business counselor
"If life was so easy that you could just go buy success, there would be
a lot more successful companies in the world. Successful enterprises are
built from the ground up."
-- Lou Gerstner, IBM CEO
"The real winners in life are the people who look at every situation
with an expectation that they can make it work or make it better."
-- Barbara Pletcher, author
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
"A good goal is like a strenuous exercise - it makes you stretch."
-- Mary Kay Ash, cosmetics pioneer
"Only when we are no longer afraid do we begin to live."
-- Dorothy Thompson, journalist
"Someone has well said, "Success is a journey, not a destination."
Happiness is to be found along the way, not at the end of the road."
-- Robert Updegraff, business counselor
"If life was so easy that you could just go buy success, there would be
a lot more successful companies in the world. Successful enterprises are
built from the ground up."
-- Lou Gerstner, IBM CEO
"The real winners in life are the people who look at every situation
with an expectation that they can make it work or make it better."
-- Barbara Pletcher, author
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!
Monday, November 1, 2010
Daily Quotes!
Daily Quotes Nov. 1 2010!
"Our greatest enemies, the ones we must fight most often, are within."
-- Thomas Paine, statesman
"Everybody talks bout wanting to change things and help and fix, but
ultimately all you can do is fix yourself. And that's a lot. Because if
you can fix yorself, it has a ripple effect."
-- Rob Reiner, director
"Confidence... thrives only on honesty, on honor, on the sacredness of
obligations, on faithful protection and on unselfish performance.
Without them, it cannot live."
-- Franklin Roosevelt, 32nd U.S. president
"One often hears the remark "He talks too much." But when did anyone
last hear the criticism "He listens too much?""
-- Norman Augustine, aerospace executive
"The secret of business, especially these days, is to focus relentlessly
on your unfair advantage - the thing you do that others don't."
-- John Rollwagen, executive
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Relator you want!
"Our greatest enemies, the ones we must fight most often, are within."
-- Thomas Paine, statesman
"Everybody talks bout wanting to change things and help and fix, but
ultimately all you can do is fix yourself. And that's a lot. Because if
you can fix yorself, it has a ripple effect."
-- Rob Reiner, director
"Confidence... thrives only on honesty, on honor, on the sacredness of
obligations, on faithful protection and on unselfish performance.
Without them, it cannot live."
-- Franklin Roosevelt, 32nd U.S. president
"One often hears the remark "He talks too much." But when did anyone
last hear the criticism "He listens too much?""
-- Norman Augustine, aerospace executive
"The secret of business, especially these days, is to focus relentlessly
on your unfair advantage - the thing you do that others don't."
-- John Rollwagen, executive
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Relator you want!
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