Daily Quotes Jan. 19 2011!
"To know yourself is the first and most important step in pursuing your
dreams and goals."
-- Stedman Graham, educator
"It is literally true that you can succeed best and quickest by helping
others to succeed."
-- Napolean Hill, author
"A winner is someone who recognizes his God-given talents, works his
tail off to develop them into skills and uses these skills to accomplish
his goals."
-- Larry Bird, basketball player
"Every mistake that I made - and we all make mistakes - came because I
didn't take the time to get the facts. I didn't drive hard enough."
-- Charles Knight, publisher
"If you just set out to be liked, you would be prepared to compromise on
anything at anytime, and you would achieve nothing."
-- Margaret Thatcher, British prime minister
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Monday, January 17, 2011
Spring Is approaching!
Spring Is approaching!
I wanted to give you a chance to beat all your competition and list sooner than everyone else! I know you’ve heard, and I’m sure you have said it yourself, “I want to List my Home in the Spring.” that is what EVERONE is saying and this is why you should List Your Home NOW! Don’t be lost in the shuffle! Don’t be drowned out with all the new listings in the spring. List your home TODAY! The buyers are out there and they are serious!
In the last 30 days, in Salt Lake County, Homes and Condos, 521 Sold, 527 Went Under Contract with a buyer and 1097 Homes went Active! That looks like to me that 1 out of every 2 homes that went on the Market in the last 30 days are selling! Come spring that Active number will go up A LOT!
Don’t be lost in the Rush! Call today for a FREE, No Obligation, Market Analysis! You can also go to www.brianebetts.com and fill out a form! See what your home will sell for in Today’s Market!
At Least you will know!
Truly,
Brian E. Betts
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor You Want!
Keller Williams Utah Realtors
435-513-0973
betts@kw.com
www.brianebetts.com
For the week of January 17, 2011
For the week of January 17, 2011
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Down in Orlando, Florida, last week there were more housing market forecasts for the year just begun. Bottom line? Housing economists are cautiously optimistic about a recovery during 2011. These economists were presenting their views at the annual meeting of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). None of the experts see a robust upturn for housing. But they do feel that home sales, which have been in a bit of a stall, may start to recover soon.
The prevailing opinion is that the residential market should pick up in the spring, thanks to low mortgage rates and home prices at bargain levels. The NAHB's chief economist feels that recent economic indicators are "signifying growing consumer confidence." These indicators include job creations, good retail sales, and increasing purchases of big ticket items like cars and furniture. Freddie Mac's chief economist sees home prices bottoming in the first six months. He expects mortgage rates to edge up slightly but still remain at historically low levels. Overall, home sales are forecast to be up from 4% to 10% year-over-year and for new construction to be up by 20%.
Review of Last Week
THINGS KEEP LOOKING UP... Investors seem to be more positive about the U.S. economy and the European financial situation. They articulate those views by trading stock prices up and last week, they sent the Dow, the broadly based S&P 500, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq UP by solid percentages. Across the pond, Portugal, Italy, and Spain got some much needed support. Over here, Q4 corporate earnings season got off to a good start, supported by some encouraging economic data.
A slight glitch in the proceedings came from an increase in weekly unemployment claims to 445,000. But the four-week moving average is at 417,000 and continuing unemployment claims dropped by 248,000 to 3.88 million, the lowest it's been since October 2008. Strongly positive economic signs came from a shrinking trade deficit, with exports running ahead of imports over the past year. Inflation appears to be in check, as measured by Core CPI, the Fed's key reading on the matter. This means the Fed Funds rate can stay at its current low levels.
Retail sales were up slightly less than expected for December, but they did reach an all-time high, surpassing the November 2007 figure. For the last year, retail sales are up almost 8% and they've been growing at a 13% annual rate the past three months. In corporate Q4 earnings news, major players Alcoa, JPMorgan Chase, and Intel beat estimates and issued better than expected guidance going forward.
For the week, the Dow ended up 1.0%, at 11,787; the S&P 500 went up 1.7%, to 1,293; and the Nasdaq shot up 1.9%, ending at 2,755.
Bond prices went on an up and down trip last week, with varied results at the finish. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended virtually flat, down 4 basis points for the week, closing at $99.14. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages, average fixed-rate mortgage rates dropped for the second week in a row. The national average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages hit a four-week low after their slight uptick at the end of last year.
This Week’s Forecast
HOUSING, MANUFACTURING, THE ECONOMY OVERALL... Financial markets are closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. The rest of the week features some measures of the housing market. Wednesday's December Housing Starts and Building Permits will show us the mindset of home builders. Starts are forecast to be down a little, but the weather wasn't conducive to breaking ground in many regions of the country. Permits indicate starts a month or two out and they should be up a little, the same as December Existing Home Sales, coming on Thursday.
Manufacturing is expected to expand in the New York region, as measured by Tuesday's Empire State Index, but Thursday's Philadelphia Fed Index may show a slight manufacturing contraction. Also that day, the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index for December is forecast to continue to improve, although at a slightly slower rate than the previous month.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months With inflation still under control, economists expect the Fed to keep the Funds Rate at its super low level well into the year. The experts feel the economy is not yet strong enough to handle a rate hike just yet. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Down in Orlando, Florida, last week there were more housing market forecasts for the year just begun. Bottom line? Housing economists are cautiously optimistic about a recovery during 2011. These economists were presenting their views at the annual meeting of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). None of the experts see a robust upturn for housing. But they do feel that home sales, which have been in a bit of a stall, may start to recover soon.
The prevailing opinion is that the residential market should pick up in the spring, thanks to low mortgage rates and home prices at bargain levels. The NAHB's chief economist feels that recent economic indicators are "signifying growing consumer confidence." These indicators include job creations, good retail sales, and increasing purchases of big ticket items like cars and furniture. Freddie Mac's chief economist sees home prices bottoming in the first six months. He expects mortgage rates to edge up slightly but still remain at historically low levels. Overall, home sales are forecast to be up from 4% to 10% year-over-year and for new construction to be up by 20%.
Review of Last Week
THINGS KEEP LOOKING UP... Investors seem to be more positive about the U.S. economy and the European financial situation. They articulate those views by trading stock prices up and last week, they sent the Dow, the broadly based S&P 500, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq UP by solid percentages. Across the pond, Portugal, Italy, and Spain got some much needed support. Over here, Q4 corporate earnings season got off to a good start, supported by some encouraging economic data.
A slight glitch in the proceedings came from an increase in weekly unemployment claims to 445,000. But the four-week moving average is at 417,000 and continuing unemployment claims dropped by 248,000 to 3.88 million, the lowest it's been since October 2008. Strongly positive economic signs came from a shrinking trade deficit, with exports running ahead of imports over the past year. Inflation appears to be in check, as measured by Core CPI, the Fed's key reading on the matter. This means the Fed Funds rate can stay at its current low levels.
Retail sales were up slightly less than expected for December, but they did reach an all-time high, surpassing the November 2007 figure. For the last year, retail sales are up almost 8% and they've been growing at a 13% annual rate the past three months. In corporate Q4 earnings news, major players Alcoa, JPMorgan Chase, and Intel beat estimates and issued better than expected guidance going forward.
For the week, the Dow ended up 1.0%, at 11,787; the S&P 500 went up 1.7%, to 1,293; and the Nasdaq shot up 1.9%, ending at 2,755.
Bond prices went on an up and down trip last week, with varied results at the finish. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended virtually flat, down 4 basis points for the week, closing at $99.14. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages, average fixed-rate mortgage rates dropped for the second week in a row. The national average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages hit a four-week low after their slight uptick at the end of last year.
This Week’s Forecast
HOUSING, MANUFACTURING, THE ECONOMY OVERALL... Financial markets are closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. The rest of the week features some measures of the housing market. Wednesday's December Housing Starts and Building Permits will show us the mindset of home builders. Starts are forecast to be down a little, but the weather wasn't conducive to breaking ground in many regions of the country. Permits indicate starts a month or two out and they should be up a little, the same as December Existing Home Sales, coming on Thursday.
Manufacturing is expected to expand in the New York region, as measured by Tuesday's Empire State Index, but Thursday's Philadelphia Fed Index may show a slight manufacturing contraction. Also that day, the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Index for December is forecast to continue to improve, although at a slightly slower rate than the previous month.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months With inflation still under control, economists expect the Fed to keep the Funds Rate at its super low level well into the year. The experts feel the economy is not yet strong enough to handle a rate hike just yet. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
An Update on the Utah Economy
An Update on the Utah Economy
A report commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors reveals that since World War II there have only been two severe contractions in Salt Lake County’s real estate market.
If you are a baby boomer, you will remember the first contraction. It occurred from 1979-1982. Back then, the Salt Lake housing collapse was a result of overbuilding, high inflation (13%) and double digit mortgage interest rates (18%).
The second contraction is taking place now (2006-2010). In spite of an environment of low inflation and record-low mortgage interest rates, the demand for housing has remained weak. The primary causes of today’s lackluster housing market are vanishing demand, unemployment and underwater mortgages (negative equity).
In fact, in Salt Lake City there were more than 45,000 residential properties (20%) in negative equity in the third quarter, according to CoreLogic. This prevents homeowners little chance of moving up, a common feature of the real estate market.
What is needed more for a solid housing recovery? According to the Salt Lake Board’s report, an expanding job market is essential for a recovery. Good news about jobs will reduce uncertainty for homebuyers and sellers, help boost in-migration and provide the means for some of those doubled-up households to reenter the housing market.
Thankfully, Utah has turned the corner and is one again creating jobs. Further, according to Utah’s Revenue Assumption Committee, all of Utah’s major economic indicators will turn positive by 2011 with the exception of commercial building permits.
Specifically, the committee projects a much brighter future in 2011. Utah’s unemployment rate will fall to nearly 7%. The average annual wage is projected to rise 2.3%. Utah’s population will increase 1.7%. New auto and truck sales will skyrocket at 14.1%. New building permits for residential homes are expected to increase 18.3%, the first time residential construction will register a gain since 2005. And Utah exports will grow to $13.5 billion up 7.5%.
The Great Recession will be remembered for its long duration and economic devastation. Yet, it appears the gloom is near an end. Even foreclosures, which in Utah peaked in the first quarter, have begun a slow decent.
As one great man once said, “Night never had the last word. The dawn is always invincible.” So it is with this downturn. Let the recovery begin.
--Bryan Kohler, CEO of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
A report commissioned by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors reveals that since World War II there have only been two severe contractions in Salt Lake County’s real estate market.
If you are a baby boomer, you will remember the first contraction. It occurred from 1979-1982. Back then, the Salt Lake housing collapse was a result of overbuilding, high inflation (13%) and double digit mortgage interest rates (18%).
The second contraction is taking place now (2006-2010). In spite of an environment of low inflation and record-low mortgage interest rates, the demand for housing has remained weak. The primary causes of today’s lackluster housing market are vanishing demand, unemployment and underwater mortgages (negative equity).
In fact, in Salt Lake City there were more than 45,000 residential properties (20%) in negative equity in the third quarter, according to CoreLogic. This prevents homeowners little chance of moving up, a common feature of the real estate market.
What is needed more for a solid housing recovery? According to the Salt Lake Board’s report, an expanding job market is essential for a recovery. Good news about jobs will reduce uncertainty for homebuyers and sellers, help boost in-migration and provide the means for some of those doubled-up households to reenter the housing market.
Thankfully, Utah has turned the corner and is one again creating jobs. Further, according to Utah’s Revenue Assumption Committee, all of Utah’s major economic indicators will turn positive by 2011 with the exception of commercial building permits.
Specifically, the committee projects a much brighter future in 2011. Utah’s unemployment rate will fall to nearly 7%. The average annual wage is projected to rise 2.3%. Utah’s population will increase 1.7%. New auto and truck sales will skyrocket at 14.1%. New building permits for residential homes are expected to increase 18.3%, the first time residential construction will register a gain since 2005. And Utah exports will grow to $13.5 billion up 7.5%.
The Great Recession will be remembered for its long duration and economic devastation. Yet, it appears the gloom is near an end. Even foreclosures, which in Utah peaked in the first quarter, have begun a slow decent.
As one great man once said, “Night never had the last word. The dawn is always invincible.” So it is with this downturn. Let the recovery begin.
--Bryan Kohler, CEO of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
For the week of January 3, 2011
For the week of January 3, 2011
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last week saw the year finish on a high note for the housing market with Pending Home Sales for November coming in UP 3.5%, after this figure was expected to be down slightly for the month. This reading measures homes under contract, and therefore should point to an increase in closings in the January-February time frame.
The positive Pending Home Sales report was particularly welcome after Tuesday's Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October. Their 20-City Composite Index registered a 0.8% price decline year-over-year. Some say this threatens a "double dip" in housing prices, an interesting observation now that the "double dip" recession threat has all but evaporated.
The negative talk ignored the facts that 4 of the 20 cities showed annual price GAINS and the index is still above its spring 2009 low. In addition, the Case-Shiller 10-City Index showed a year-over-year price gain. It's important to remember that real estate is local and these indexes average only 10 or 20 metro areas. Some analysts feel home prices have bottomed in most markets and a few intrepid observers are even predicting a strong comeback for housing in 2011!
Review of Last Week
UP TWO YEARS IN A ROW... Investors have been encouraged by recent signs of improvement in the economic situation. Not surprisingly, the stock markets closed out the year UP for the second year in a row. For 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted an 11% gain. The broader-based S&P 500 index ended UP 12.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite moved UP a hefty 16.9% from where it was 12 months ago. For the week, all three indexes were basically flat with light trading volumes.
Not all the economic signs were rosy, however, as Consumer Confidence for December dropped to 52.5 from its 54.1 level in November. This was also well below the consensus estimate. As covered above, the October Case-Shiller home price index had its disappointments as well, although November Pending Homes Sales numbers gave us hope about a boost in closings in the next month or two.
Other good news included the Chicago PMI index for December, unexpectedly UP well above estimates, reaching 68.6 versus November's 62.5. This indicates continued strong growth in manufacturing in that part of the country. Initial weekly jobless claims dropped below the 400,000 level, coming in way better than consensus forecasts, at 388,000. This was well under the prior week's 420,000 initial claims and continues the downward trend of the last few weeks. We're of course still not where we should be with jobs, although finally moving in the right direction.
For the week, the Dow ended up 5 points, at 11,578; the S&P 500 edged up a point, to 1,258; and the Nasdaq was off 0.5%, ending at 2,653. (Note: we've dropped the decimals and rounded the indexes to their nearest whole numbers.)
The bond market swung up and down like a yo-yo all week. But the FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ultimately finished UP 101 basis points, closing at $99.18. Average fixed-rate mortgage rates also ticked up, but stayed "incredibly low," according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages. Their chief economist observed that for the year, 30-year fixed mortgage rates reported "...the lowest annual average since 1955, when the average price of a home was $22,000." But with possible rate increases, people who want to buy or refinance should not waste time.
This Week’s Forecast
WHAT THE FED SAID AND EMPLOYERS DID... We start the new year by finding out Tuesday what the Fed said about the economic situation as recorded in the Minutes of their December 14 FOMC meeting. Subsequently, we'll find out what employers did about creating new jobs in Friday's December Employment Report. An increase of 132,000 jobs is expected, although that won't be enough to lower the unemployment rate, with new people coming into the labor force.
We'll also have a look at the health of US manufacturing in Monday's ISM Index and the non-manufacturing sector in Wednesday's ISM Services Index. Both should remain comfortably above 50, indicating continued business expansion. Hopefully, a happy new year begins.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Economists still expect the Fed to keep the Funds Rate at its super low level for the first few months of the new year. Things could change in the second half, with a strengthening economy or the threat of inflation. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last week saw the year finish on a high note for the housing market with Pending Home Sales for November coming in UP 3.5%, after this figure was expected to be down slightly for the month. This reading measures homes under contract, and therefore should point to an increase in closings in the January-February time frame.
The positive Pending Home Sales report was particularly welcome after Tuesday's Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October. Their 20-City Composite Index registered a 0.8% price decline year-over-year. Some say this threatens a "double dip" in housing prices, an interesting observation now that the "double dip" recession threat has all but evaporated.
The negative talk ignored the facts that 4 of the 20 cities showed annual price GAINS and the index is still above its spring 2009 low. In addition, the Case-Shiller 10-City Index showed a year-over-year price gain. It's important to remember that real estate is local and these indexes average only 10 or 20 metro areas. Some analysts feel home prices have bottomed in most markets and a few intrepid observers are even predicting a strong comeback for housing in 2011!
Review of Last Week
UP TWO YEARS IN A ROW... Investors have been encouraged by recent signs of improvement in the economic situation. Not surprisingly, the stock markets closed out the year UP for the second year in a row. For 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted an 11% gain. The broader-based S&P 500 index ended UP 12.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite moved UP a hefty 16.9% from where it was 12 months ago. For the week, all three indexes were basically flat with light trading volumes.
Not all the economic signs were rosy, however, as Consumer Confidence for December dropped to 52.5 from its 54.1 level in November. This was also well below the consensus estimate. As covered above, the October Case-Shiller home price index had its disappointments as well, although November Pending Homes Sales numbers gave us hope about a boost in closings in the next month or two.
Other good news included the Chicago PMI index for December, unexpectedly UP well above estimates, reaching 68.6 versus November's 62.5. This indicates continued strong growth in manufacturing in that part of the country. Initial weekly jobless claims dropped below the 400,000 level, coming in way better than consensus forecasts, at 388,000. This was well under the prior week's 420,000 initial claims and continues the downward trend of the last few weeks. We're of course still not where we should be with jobs, although finally moving in the right direction.
For the week, the Dow ended up 5 points, at 11,578; the S&P 500 edged up a point, to 1,258; and the Nasdaq was off 0.5%, ending at 2,653. (Note: we've dropped the decimals and rounded the indexes to their nearest whole numbers.)
The bond market swung up and down like a yo-yo all week. But the FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ultimately finished UP 101 basis points, closing at $99.18. Average fixed-rate mortgage rates also ticked up, but stayed "incredibly low," according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages. Their chief economist observed that for the year, 30-year fixed mortgage rates reported "...the lowest annual average since 1955, when the average price of a home was $22,000." But with possible rate increases, people who want to buy or refinance should not waste time.
This Week’s Forecast
WHAT THE FED SAID AND EMPLOYERS DID... We start the new year by finding out Tuesday what the Fed said about the economic situation as recorded in the Minutes of their December 14 FOMC meeting. Subsequently, we'll find out what employers did about creating new jobs in Friday's December Employment Report. An increase of 132,000 jobs is expected, although that won't be enough to lower the unemployment rate, with new people coming into the labor force.
We'll also have a look at the health of US manufacturing in Monday's ISM Index and the non-manufacturing sector in Wednesday's ISM Services Index. Both should remain comfortably above 50, indicating continued business expansion. Hopefully, a happy new year begins.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Economists still expect the Fed to keep the Funds Rate at its super low level for the first few months of the new year. Things could change in the second half, with a strengthening economy or the threat of inflation. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
LOAN MODIFICATION SCAMS
LOAN MODIFICATION SCAMS
It is obvious that the scammers are very active right now. They have many ways to take advantage of desperate and distressed homeowners in today's real estate market. One of the best things a homeowner can do to protect him or herself from these scammers is to work with a licensed professional. Mortgage and real estate licensees are trained in how to help homeowners who face these very problems. As your Real Estate agent, please know that I am available for questions.
Here is a list of simple things homeowners can do to protect themselves:
Make sure that the loan modification company is • licensed with the Division of Real Estate.
Do not work with any individual or company that is not licensed.
Talk to your lender or servicer directly. Let your lender know your problems, and discuss ways you might resolve the issues
Never make your mortgage payment to a third party.
Do not pay an up-front fee. Do not pay any • fees until you receive a written offer from your lender or servicer for modified loan terms.
Do not stop making your mortgage payments. • Doing so will put you closer to foreclosure.
Do not sign a quit claim deed to another property.•
Do not sign any documents in blank. • Make sure your read what you sign.
If you think you are being scammed, file a complaint with the Division of Real Estate.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
It is obvious that the scammers are very active right now. They have many ways to take advantage of desperate and distressed homeowners in today's real estate market. One of the best things a homeowner can do to protect him or herself from these scammers is to work with a licensed professional. Mortgage and real estate licensees are trained in how to help homeowners who face these very problems. As your Real Estate agent, please know that I am available for questions.
Here is a list of simple things homeowners can do to protect themselves:
Make sure that the loan modification company is • licensed with the Division of Real Estate.
Do not work with any individual or company that is not licensed.
Talk to your lender or servicer directly. Let your lender know your problems, and discuss ways you might resolve the issues
Never make your mortgage payment to a third party.
Do not pay an up-front fee. Do not pay any • fees until you receive a written offer from your lender or servicer for modified loan terms.
Do not stop making your mortgage payments. • Doing so will put you closer to foreclosure.
Do not sign a quit claim deed to another property.•
Do not sign any documents in blank. • Make sure your read what you sign.
If you think you are being scammed, file a complaint with the Division of Real Estate.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
Utah Year End Review
GOOD NEWS for Utah as 2010 ends:
Utah Year End Review
Jobs Utah should add 16,500 jobs during 2011, according to Jim Wood, head of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Utah. Utah suffered a loss of 72,000 jobs over the recent 22 month recession.
Utah has had positive job growth in each of the last six months, although the rate has been modest --between 1% and 2%. Furthermore, the report predicts that Utah should get back to its long-term average employment growth rate of 3% (37,000 new jobs per year) by 2013.
Population
The state of Utah has been the third fastest growing state in the nation, growing close to 24% in the past decade. That compares with the national rate of 9.7%. Utah’s growth has been helped by a comparatively resilient economy and one of the country’s highest birth rates.
Job Briefs
✦Adobe has picked its contractor for its new Lehi campus. Expect 1,000 new jobs with an average payof around $90,000 per years.
✦Chicago based Czarnowski Display Service Inc. is opening an office in the St. George area and will add 50 full-time employees at 150% of the Washington County average wage.
✦BYU has lifted its hiring freeze that has been in place for nearly two years, a sign that the economy is recovering.
✦Online retailer Overstock.com announced that the company will open a software development center in Provo early next year and will add 150 new jobs to the 1,500 the company already employs in the Beehive State.
✦Salt Lake Community College broke ground on a new $29MM 136,000 square foot classroom building at its Redwood Road campus near 4600 S.
✦Merit Medical continues work on its $45MM expansion in South Jordan. The expansion will accommodate 700 new jobs over the next several years.
✦A subsidiary of Rubbermaid is adding 50 new fulltime positions to its new manufacturing facility in Ogden.
✦Station Park in Farmington has broke ground. Harmons will be the grocery anchor. The stabilized value of the shopping center will be nearly $250MM. The project will include apartments (yet to be announced) near the Front Runner station.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
Utah Year End Review
Jobs Utah should add 16,500 jobs during 2011, according to Jim Wood, head of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Utah. Utah suffered a loss of 72,000 jobs over the recent 22 month recession.
Utah has had positive job growth in each of the last six months, although the rate has been modest --between 1% and 2%. Furthermore, the report predicts that Utah should get back to its long-term average employment growth rate of 3% (37,000 new jobs per year) by 2013.
Population
The state of Utah has been the third fastest growing state in the nation, growing close to 24% in the past decade. That compares with the national rate of 9.7%. Utah’s growth has been helped by a comparatively resilient economy and one of the country’s highest birth rates.
Job Briefs
✦Adobe has picked its contractor for its new Lehi campus. Expect 1,000 new jobs with an average payof around $90,000 per years.
✦Chicago based Czarnowski Display Service Inc. is opening an office in the St. George area and will add 50 full-time employees at 150% of the Washington County average wage.
✦BYU has lifted its hiring freeze that has been in place for nearly two years, a sign that the economy is recovering.
✦Online retailer Overstock.com announced that the company will open a software development center in Provo early next year and will add 150 new jobs to the 1,500 the company already employs in the Beehive State.
✦Salt Lake Community College broke ground on a new $29MM 136,000 square foot classroom building at its Redwood Road campus near 4600 S.
✦Merit Medical continues work on its $45MM expansion in South Jordan. The expansion will accommodate 700 new jobs over the next several years.
✦A subsidiary of Rubbermaid is adding 50 new fulltime positions to its new manufacturing facility in Ogden.
✦Station Park in Farmington has broke ground. Harmons will be the grocery anchor. The stabilized value of the shopping center will be nearly $250MM. The project will include apartments (yet to be announced) near the Front Runner station.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
For the week of December 20, 2010
For the week of December 20, 2010
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last Thursday it was good to see that Housing Starts picked up for November, rising 3.9% for the month to an annual rate of 555,000 units. This beat expectations and was especially gratifying because all the gain came from a 6.9% increase in single-family starts. These have now been up three out of the last four months.
Multi-family starts were down for the fourth month in a row, but these are very volatile on a monthly basis. In fact, the 12-month moving average for multi-family starts is still trending higher, up 5.9% compared to a year ago. The demand for multi-unit residences should continue to grow, which is why some observers foresee a large rebound in multi-unit construction in the new few months. Although there are still excess housing inventories, they are falling quickly and experts expect them to drop further, even with a home building recovery.
Review of Last Week
THREE IN A ROW... Investors sent stocks higher for the third straight week on Wall Street. The markets weren't exactly on fire, as volumes were low, which is typical for this time of year, and investors remain guardedly optimistic, which has been their attitude since last month's elections. As happens so often, the week's festivities were driven by the economic headlines and there certainly were plenty to ponder.
The consumer appears to be showing up for the holidays, as retail sales went up 0.8% in November, up 1.2% excluding autos. Including revisions to September and October numbers, overall sales were up 1.5% for the month. Retail is now UP 7.7% over a year ago, and sales are up at a 12% annual rate for the past five months! On the worrisome side, the November Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale inflation up 0.8%, although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a benign 0.1%. Consumer prices are up 1.1% over a year ago, which is good, but wholesale prices are up 3.5% for the year, which isn't so good if you want to keep inflation in check and interest rates down.
The jobs recovery is key to the housing rebound, so it was good to see new unemployment claims falling again last week, to 420,000. This beat expectations and was the second lowest number this year for weekly claims, which have now fallen three times in the last four weeks. The Philadelphia Fed index showed manufacturing continues to grow in that region, as it was up nicely for December. Likewise, the Empire State index showed New York manufacturing coming back strong in December after last month's dip. November Industrial Production rose above expectations and capacity utilization showed factories at their highest volume levels since October 2008.
For the week, the Dow was UP 0.7%, to 11491.91; the S&P 500 was UP 0.3%, to 1243.91; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.2%, to 2642.97.
With investors feeling more upbeat about the economy, money flowed into stocks and out of the bonds that fund most mortgage loans. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 78 basis points for the week, closing at $98.22. This inched mortgage rates higher once again. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages had the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate up for the fifth week in a row. Rates are still historically low, but people looking to purchase or refinance should be aware that the low-rate party may soon be over.
This Week’s Forecast
HOUSING, INFLATION AND THE OVERALL ECONOMY... This week we get to see how the economy is coming along in some key areas. We track the housing recovery with Wednesday's Existing Home Sales and Thursday's New Home Sales, both expected to be up a bit for November. Continuing the theme of a steady if slow recovery, the third estimate of GDP should show the overall economy growing at a 2.7% annual rate, up from the prior 2.5% estimate. Again, a slower rate of growth than economists would like to see, but growth nonetheless.
Thursday brings more inflation readings, with both Personal Spending and Core PCE Prices expected to remain under control. The final December reading on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment may be up a small amount, while November Durable Goods Orders may be down a tad. The markets will be closed Friday.
Happy Holidays to you and yours during this joyous season!
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months The policy statement from last week's FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is not yet convinced the economy is on solid ground. Analysts therefore expect the Fed Funds Rate to stay at its super low level for an "extended period." Inflation, or a stronger economic recovery, could of course start the rate back up. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Last Thursday it was good to see that Housing Starts picked up for November, rising 3.9% for the month to an annual rate of 555,000 units. This beat expectations and was especially gratifying because all the gain came from a 6.9% increase in single-family starts. These have now been up three out of the last four months.
Multi-family starts were down for the fourth month in a row, but these are very volatile on a monthly basis. In fact, the 12-month moving average for multi-family starts is still trending higher, up 5.9% compared to a year ago. The demand for multi-unit residences should continue to grow, which is why some observers foresee a large rebound in multi-unit construction in the new few months. Although there are still excess housing inventories, they are falling quickly and experts expect them to drop further, even with a home building recovery.
Review of Last Week
THREE IN A ROW... Investors sent stocks higher for the third straight week on Wall Street. The markets weren't exactly on fire, as volumes were low, which is typical for this time of year, and investors remain guardedly optimistic, which has been their attitude since last month's elections. As happens so often, the week's festivities were driven by the economic headlines and there certainly were plenty to ponder.
The consumer appears to be showing up for the holidays, as retail sales went up 0.8% in November, up 1.2% excluding autos. Including revisions to September and October numbers, overall sales were up 1.5% for the month. Retail is now UP 7.7% over a year ago, and sales are up at a 12% annual rate for the past five months! On the worrisome side, the November Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale inflation up 0.8%, although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a benign 0.1%. Consumer prices are up 1.1% over a year ago, which is good, but wholesale prices are up 3.5% for the year, which isn't so good if you want to keep inflation in check and interest rates down.
The jobs recovery is key to the housing rebound, so it was good to see new unemployment claims falling again last week, to 420,000. This beat expectations and was the second lowest number this year for weekly claims, which have now fallen three times in the last four weeks. The Philadelphia Fed index showed manufacturing continues to grow in that region, as it was up nicely for December. Likewise, the Empire State index showed New York manufacturing coming back strong in December after last month's dip. November Industrial Production rose above expectations and capacity utilization showed factories at their highest volume levels since October 2008.
For the week, the Dow was UP 0.7%, to 11491.91; the S&P 500 was UP 0.3%, to 1243.91; and the Nasdaq was UP 0.2%, to 2642.97.
With investors feeling more upbeat about the economy, money flowed into stocks and out of the bonds that fund most mortgage loans. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 78 basis points for the week, closing at $98.22. This inched mortgage rates higher once again. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages had the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate up for the fifth week in a row. Rates are still historically low, but people looking to purchase or refinance should be aware that the low-rate party may soon be over.
This Week’s Forecast
HOUSING, INFLATION AND THE OVERALL ECONOMY... This week we get to see how the economy is coming along in some key areas. We track the housing recovery with Wednesday's Existing Home Sales and Thursday's New Home Sales, both expected to be up a bit for November. Continuing the theme of a steady if slow recovery, the third estimate of GDP should show the overall economy growing at a 2.7% annual rate, up from the prior 2.5% estimate. Again, a slower rate of growth than economists would like to see, but growth nonetheless.
Thursday brings more inflation readings, with both Personal Spending and Core PCE Prices expected to remain under control. The final December reading on University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment may be up a small amount, while November Durable Goods Orders may be down a tad. The markets will be closed Friday.
Happy Holidays to you and yours during this joyous season!
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months The policy statement from last week's FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is not yet convinced the economy is on solid ground. Analysts therefore expect the Fed Funds Rate to stay at its super low level for an "extended period." Inflation, or a stronger economic recovery, could of course start the rate back up. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
For the week of December 13, 2010
For the week of December 13, 2010
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
There wasn't a ton of news impacting the housing market last week, but we did get more talk about the move up in mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages showed the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage back at the level it was last June. That still puts mortgage rates below where they were a year ago when everyone was happy to get in on those bargains. So none of this is bad news in the absolute sense but the trend should be noted. People who want to buy or refinance should not drag their feet!
It was encouraging to see new construction spending UP in October, now two months in a row, and the gain mostly came from a rise in residential construction. The U.S. Census Bureau put residential construction UP 2.4% in October to an annual rate of $240.3 billion. Though headed in the right direction, residential construction is still down 8% from a year ago.
Review of Last Week
DRIFTING UP... The Dow moved less than 20 points five days in a row, then finished the week with a 40-point gain. With this kind of flat performance, observers feel the stock market is drifting, rather than surging, higher, yet higher it goes. The S&P 500 in fact ended the week at a two-year high, as investors clearly are feeling a little more upbeat about the economy.
The centerpiece of the week for many on Wall Street was the tax compromise plan the President arrived at with Republican leaders. Some Congressional Democrats were not happy about the agreement, but investors believe a bill will be passed before January 1 that keeps lower tax rates in place for all taxpayers for the next two years. This is viewed by many as helpful to speeding up the recovery. An extension of unemployment benefits was tied into the deal, which will help those looking for work while the economy heals.
Other hopeful signs included University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment beating expectations, showing people feel better about the economy as of early December. October exports rose to their highest levels in over two years, as the U.S. trade deficit surprisingly fell better than 13%. Exports to China grew almost 30%, narrowing our trade gap with that country by 8.3%. Additional positive news: the government sold its remaining stake in Citigroup; AIG said it would pay back the final $20 billion it owes the New York Fed; and GE announced it will increase its quarterly dividend by 17%.
For the week, the Dow was UP 0.2%, to 11410.32; the S&P 500 was UP 1.3%, to 1240.40; and the Nasdaq was UP 1.8%, to 2637.54.
Bonds got hammered most of the week as stocks edged up. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 120 basis points for the week, closing at $99.00. Yields move opposite to prices, so they went higher and that inched mortgage rates up for another week. As reported above, national average rates for fixed-rate mortgages went north a tad, which isn't horrible in itself, since rates are still at historically low levels.
This Week’s Forecast
LOTS MORE THAN THE FED... We have another Fed meeting on Tuesday and no one expects the rate to move up, although the Fed's policy statement will be carefully read as usual. The central bank's economic views certainly bear watching, but there's lots more in store. Tuesday's Producer Price Index gives us wholesale inflation and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index measures the consumer version, and they're both expected to remain in check. Tuesday's Retail Sales numbers should show a continued, though modest, growth in consumer spending.
Manufacturing gauges are forecast to improve slightly, although the Philadelphia region is expected to decline. Most important to us, November Housing Starts and Building Permits will come in on Thursday and observers expect more activity from builders, although we're still not back to pre-downturn levels.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Virtually all experts expect no hike in the Fed Funds Rate at this week's FOMC meeting. The current super low rate level is forecast to hold through the first half of 2011. But the threat of inflation or a speeding up of the economic recovery could start the rate back up. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
There wasn't a ton of news impacting the housing market last week, but we did get more talk about the move up in mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages showed the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage back at the level it was last June. That still puts mortgage rates below where they were a year ago when everyone was happy to get in on those bargains. So none of this is bad news in the absolute sense but the trend should be noted. People who want to buy or refinance should not drag their feet!
It was encouraging to see new construction spending UP in October, now two months in a row, and the gain mostly came from a rise in residential construction. The U.S. Census Bureau put residential construction UP 2.4% in October to an annual rate of $240.3 billion. Though headed in the right direction, residential construction is still down 8% from a year ago.
Review of Last Week
DRIFTING UP... The Dow moved less than 20 points five days in a row, then finished the week with a 40-point gain. With this kind of flat performance, observers feel the stock market is drifting, rather than surging, higher, yet higher it goes. The S&P 500 in fact ended the week at a two-year high, as investors clearly are feeling a little more upbeat about the economy.
The centerpiece of the week for many on Wall Street was the tax compromise plan the President arrived at with Republican leaders. Some Congressional Democrats were not happy about the agreement, but investors believe a bill will be passed before January 1 that keeps lower tax rates in place for all taxpayers for the next two years. This is viewed by many as helpful to speeding up the recovery. An extension of unemployment benefits was tied into the deal, which will help those looking for work while the economy heals.
Other hopeful signs included University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment beating expectations, showing people feel better about the economy as of early December. October exports rose to their highest levels in over two years, as the U.S. trade deficit surprisingly fell better than 13%. Exports to China grew almost 30%, narrowing our trade gap with that country by 8.3%. Additional positive news: the government sold its remaining stake in Citigroup; AIG said it would pay back the final $20 billion it owes the New York Fed; and GE announced it will increase its quarterly dividend by 17%.
For the week, the Dow was UP 0.2%, to 11410.32; the S&P 500 was UP 1.3%, to 1240.40; and the Nasdaq was UP 1.8%, to 2637.54.
Bonds got hammered most of the week as stocks edged up. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 120 basis points for the week, closing at $99.00. Yields move opposite to prices, so they went higher and that inched mortgage rates up for another week. As reported above, national average rates for fixed-rate mortgages went north a tad, which isn't horrible in itself, since rates are still at historically low levels.
This Week’s Forecast
LOTS MORE THAN THE FED... We have another Fed meeting on Tuesday and no one expects the rate to move up, although the Fed's policy statement will be carefully read as usual. The central bank's economic views certainly bear watching, but there's lots more in store. Tuesday's Producer Price Index gives us wholesale inflation and Wednesday's Consumer Price Index measures the consumer version, and they're both expected to remain in check. Tuesday's Retail Sales numbers should show a continued, though modest, growth in consumer spending.
Manufacturing gauges are forecast to improve slightly, although the Philadelphia region is expected to decline. Most important to us, November Housing Starts and Building Permits will come in on Thursday and observers expect more activity from builders, although we're still not back to pre-downturn levels.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Virtually all experts expect no hike in the Fed Funds Rate at this week's FOMC meeting. The current super low rate level is forecast to hold through the first half of 2011. But the threat of inflation or a speeding up of the economic recovery could start the rate back up. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
Daily Quotes Jan. 17 2011!
"Good ideas are not adopted automatically. They must be driven into
practice with courageous patience."
-- Hyman Rickover, Admiral
"The best way to make your dreams come true is to wake up."
-- Paul Valery, French Poet
"Don't argue for other people's weaknesses. Don't argue for your own. When you make a mistake, admit it, correct it, and learn from it immediately. "
-- Stephen R. Covey, Author and Speaker
"Men are anxious to improve their circumstances, but are unwilling to
improve themselves; they therefore remain bound."
-- James Allen
"Do not fear going forward slowly; fear only to stand still."
-- Chinese Proverb
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
practice with courageous patience."
-- Hyman Rickover, Admiral
"The best way to make your dreams come true is to wake up."
-- Paul Valery, French Poet
"Don't argue for other people's weaknesses. Don't argue for your own. When you make a mistake, admit it, correct it, and learn from it immediately. "
-- Stephen R. Covey, Author and Speaker
"Men are anxious to improve their circumstances, but are unwilling to
improve themselves; they therefore remain bound."
-- James Allen
"Do not fear going forward slowly; fear only to stand still."
-- Chinese Proverb
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
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