Friday, December 10, 2010

Daily Quotes Dec. 10 2010!

"You can't do it unless you can imagine it."
-- George Lucas, director

"Courage is rarely reckless or foolish. Courage usually involves a
highly realistic estimate of the odds that must be faced."
-- Margaret Truman, author

"Do not pray for tasks equal to your powers. Pray for powers equal to
your tasks."
-- Phillips Brooks, clergyman

"Trouble is only opportunity in work clothes."
-- Henry Kaiser, industrialist

"I learned that good judgment comes from experience and that experience
grows out of mistakes."
-- Omar Bradley, general

All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Daily Quotes Dec. 7 2010!

Daily Quotes Dec. 7 2010!

"Problems should be solved on the spot, as soon as they arise. No
frontline employee should have to wait for a supervisor's permission."
-- Jan Carlzon, airline executive

"Knowledge has to be improved, challenged and increased constantly, or it vanishes."
-- Peter Drucker, management expert

"Dreams never hurt anybody if he keeps working right behind the dream to
make as much of it become real as he can."
-- Frank Woolworth, Entrepreneur

"Wisdom is knowing what to do; virtue is doing it."
-- David Jordan, scientist

"You are not beaten until you admit it."
-- George Patton, general

All "Betts" on Brain! The Only Realtor you want!

Monday, December 6, 2010

For the week of November 29, 2010

For the week of November 29, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

Market Update

Last week was short, but still managed to squeeze in two reports on our favorite topic. Wednesday's New Home Sales for October were down 8.1% from the month before, at an annual rate of 283,000. A slight upward move in these numbers had been forecast. The inventory of new homes edged up to 8.6 months, higher than the 6 month's supply level everyone would like to see.

But Tuesday, October Existing Home Sales came in with a way smaller decline – down just 2.2% from September and in line with expectations. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported the annual sales rate at 4.43 million homes. Actual sales, year to date, are 4.15 million, down 2.9% from the same period a year ago. The NAR's chief economist feels that sales activity appears to be "off the bottom and attempting to settle into normal, sustainable levels." He expects steady improvement to levels "above 5 million by spring of next year." The median existing home price edged down a little to $170,500 and is down only 0.9% from a year ago. The months' supply of existing homes dipped to 10.5 from September's 10.6 reading, as inventories declined overall.

Review of Last Week

A TURKEY FOR WALL STREET... Unfortunately, Thanksgiving week turned out to be a turkey for stock market investors. Stock prices went down following renewed concerns over European debt and North and South Korea lobbing shells at each other across their border. Even though one trading day registered a 150-point gain thanks to some encouraging economic news, three out of the four days were downers, so the Dow and the S&P 500 ended lower for the week, while the Nasdaq eked out a miniscule gain.

With European debt, there are once again fears of contagion, which negatively affected stock markets there and around the world. While Ireland works its bailout with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, worries about Portugal and Spain re-surface. On the home front, a negative Durable Goods Orders reading for October was offset by an upwardly revised 5.0% gain for September. The fall-off in New Home Sales was similarly balanced by Existing Home Sales coming in as expected, covered above.

Encouraging indicators also included Q3 GDP (gross domestic product) getting an upward revision from its initial estimate, to a 2.5% annual growth rate. Improvements in consumer spending and exports drove the solid move up. Initial jobless claims held at under 450,000 for the third week in a row, now down to 407,000. Finally, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment surged to 71.6, more than two points above consensus expectations.

For the week, the Dow was down 1.0%, to 11092.00; the S&P 500 was down 0.9%, to 1189.40; but the Nasdaq was UP 0.7%, to 2534.56.

The bond market benefited from the flight to safety caused by events in Europe and Korea, but there was enough good economic news to put bond prices under pressure. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 8 basis points for the week, closing at $101.09. National average rates for fixed-rate mortgages barely moved last week, according to Freddie Mac's survey of conforming mortgage rates. They are still at historically low levels.

This Week’s Forecast

MORE JOBS, SAME UNEMPLOYMENT RATE... The month ends tomorrow, so Friday brings the
November Employment Report and everyone will be looking for signs of hope on the jobs front. Experts predict we'll have another monthly gain in payrolls, although the 130,000 jobs predicted won't be enough to move the unemployment rate down. A jobs recovery is key to the housing recovery, but we're not quite there.

Thursday's Pending Home Sales report for October will give us an idea about existing home sales a couple of months out. No one expects a surge just yet. Manufacturing, however, is forecast to continue its steady expansion, with both Chicago PMI and the ISM Index well north of 50. The ISM Services read also shows growth in the nonmanufacturing sector. Observers are expecting a slight hike in November Consumer Confidence, always a good thing.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Economists expect the Fed Funds Rate to remain low while the Fed continues its $600 billion bond buying program through the first half of next year. A surge in inflation or in the economic recovery could of course change that. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you want!

Last Week in the News November 29, 2010

Last Week in the News November 29, 2010

Retail sales fell 0.6% for the week ending November 20, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs index. On a year-over-year basis, retailers saw sales increase 2.8%.

Gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — increased at an annual rate of 2.5% in the third quarter of 2010. This follows a 1.7% pace of growth in the second quarter of 2010.

Existing home sales fell 2.2% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million units from 4.53 million units in September. The inventory of unsold homes on the market declined 3.4% to 3.86 million, a 10.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a revised 10.6-month supply in September.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week ending November 19 rose 2.1%. Refinancing applications decreased 1%. Purchase volume rose 14.4%.

Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — fell 3.3% in October after increasing an upwardly revised 5% in September. Excluding volatile transportation-related goods, orders posted a monthly decrease of 2.7%.

New home sales fell 8.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 283,000 units from a rate of 307,000 units in September. Economists had expected a pace of 314,000 units.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 34,000 to 407,000 for the week ending November 20. That's the lowest level since July 2008. Continuing claims for the week ending November 13 fell by 142,000 to 4.18 million.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on the housing price index on November 30, construction spending on December 1 and pending home sales on December 2.

All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Relator you want!

For the week of November 22, 2010

For the week of November 22, 2010

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

Market Update

The Commerce Department reported last Wednesday that Housing Starts dropped 11.7% in October. This put them at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 519,000, their lowest level in 18 months. But most of the fall off came from a 43.5% decline in multifamily construction, a volatile part of the market. Single-family building, accounting for more than 80% of all starts, was off just 1.1%, to 436,000 units. And September single-family starts were revised UP to a 2.1% gain. Meanwhile, Building Permits, which reflect builders' views of the future, were UP 0.5% to 550,000, another hopeful sign.

National average mortgage rates edged up in both Freddie Mac and Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly reports. The MBA felt rates rose because of "stronger economic data and lingering uncertainty regarding the structure and impact of the Fed's QE2 program." This Fed plan to buy $600 billion in bonds in a second round of quantitative easing was supposed to push rates down, stimulating the economy by making borrowing more affordable. But some investors fear QE2 will spark inflation, which pushes mortgage bond prices down and mortgage rates up. People looking to buy or refinance should probably not drag their feet waiting for lower rates that may never happen.

Review of Last Week

FLAT... The week on Wall Street saw a big drop in stock prices Tuesday, followed by a big gain on Thursday, but when all was said and done, the week ended virtually flat for all three market indexes. This, however, was a big improvement over the prior week's big declines for all the indexes.

Negative influences on the proceedings included the drop in Housing Starts covered above, along with the unexpected rise in mortgage rates after the start of the Fed's bond buying program. But once you got past those items, you had to go overseas to find more downers, which were basically continuations of last week's concerns. Investors don't like Chinese inflation threatening a rise in interest rates over there, or the increasing possibility of a bailout for the Irish banks.

But back over here, we did have some goodies going on. Retail sales were UP 1.2% in October, following a September gain that was upwardly revised to 0.7%. Could other positive economic surprises be on the way? Inflation came in tame, with the Consumer Price Index up just 0.2% for October and Core CPI up only 0.6% year-over-year, the smallest inflation increase in the index's history, dating back to 1957! Initial jobless claims held at under 450,000 for the second week in a row, still too high but showing that the labor market is better than it's been. The General Motors IPO gave back over $13 billion of the money taxpayers put in to prevent a GM bankruptcy.

For the week, the Dow was up just 0.1%, to 11203.55; the S&P 500 was flat, up only a fraction of a point, to 1199.73; and the Nasdaq was also flat, down a fraction of a point, to 2518.12.

The bond market had an up and down week of it, with prices under pressure on some issues at the end. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down 89 basis points for the week, closing at $101.17. This downward action in mortgage bond prices sent national average rates for fixed-rate mortgages up a tad for the week, as mentioned above.

This Week’s Forecast

TWO PACKED DAYS... Thanksgiving shortens the week, so a slew of economic reports get packed into Tuesday and Wednesday. We start with Second Estimate Q3 GDP, expected to edge up from the preliminary reading. Existing Home Sales for October should show a slight drop in the annual rate. Also Tuesday, the Minutes of the FOMC meeting of the Fed on November 3, could give more insight into the economic recovery.

Wednesday kicks off with Core PCE Prices, expected to inch up a tad, but still within the Fed's comfort zone for inflation. No need for them to curtail their QE2 bond-buying! Durable Goods Orders are forecast down a little for October, while Initial Unemployment Claims for the week should remain at their currently lower levels. Happily, New Home Sales for October are projected up a tad and let's hope the experts have that right.... Happy Thanksgiving!

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months With last week's CPI readings showing inflation very mild indeed, economists expect the Fed Funds Rate to stay low as the Fed continues its $600 billion bond buying program through the first half of next year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

All "Betts' on Brian! The Ony Realtor you want!

Last Week in the News November 22, 2010

Last Week in the News November 22, 2010

Retail sales rose 1.2% in October after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in September. It was the largest increase in seven months. Economists had anticipated retail sales to rise 0.7% in October.

Total business inventories rose 0.9% in September to $1.4 trillion, the highest level since March 2009. Total business sales rose 0.5% in September after a 0.3% increase in August.

The producer price index, which tracks wholesale price inflation, rose 0.4% in October, matching a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices — excluding food and fuel — fell 0.6% in October, the most since July 2006. For the year, seasonally adjusted wholesale prices are up 4.3%.

Industrial production at the nation's factories, mines and utilities was unchanged in October, following a revised 0.1% increase in September. Economists had anticipated a gain of 0.3%. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 74.8% in October.

Consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October, following a 0.1% increase in September. For the year, seasonally adjusted consumer prices are up 1.2%.

The combined construction of new single-family homes and apartments in October fell 11.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 519,000 units. Single-family starts fell 1.1%. Multifamily starts dropped 43.5%. Applications for new building permits, seen as an indicator of future activity, rose 0.5% to an annual rate of 550,000 units.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 439,000 for the week ending November 13. Continuing claims for the week ending November 6 fell by 48,000 to 4.295 million, the lowest level since the recovery began.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on existing home sales on November 23 and new home sales on November 24.

All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Relator you want!

Daily Quotes Dec. 6 2010!

"Small opportunities are often the beginning of great enterprises."
-- Demosthenes, statesman

"The successful man is the one who had the chance and took it."
-- Roger Babson, executive

"We can learn from past failures and mistakes, but we shouldn't get stuck there. We can keep future goals in mind, but we shouldn't get stuck there, either. The only way to reach our potential is to focus on what we must do now - this moment, this day - to perform effectively and win."
-- Joe Torre

"All men who deliberate on controversial matters should do it free of
hate, friendship, anger and pity."
-- Sallust, historian

"Instead of comparing our lot with that of those who are more fortunate
than we are, we should compare it with the lot of the great majority of
our fellow men. It then appears that we are among the privileged."
-- Helen Keller, lecturer

All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Relator you want!