"Worry often gives a small thing a great shadow."
-- Swedish Proverb
"I attribute my success to this: I never gave or took an excuse."
-- Florence Nightingale
"Optimism is the faith that leads to achievement. Nothing can be done
without hope and confidence."
-- Helen Adams Keller, American Author and Lecturer
"Effective leadership is putting first things first. Effective
management is discipline, carrying it out."
-- Stephen Covey, Author and Speaker
"The best teamwork comes from men who are working independently toward
one goal in unison."
-- James Cash Penney, Founder of J.C. Penney Stores
"We cannot become what we need to be by remaining what we are."
-- Max De Pree
"Every thought is a seed. If you plant crab apples, don't count on
harvesting golden delicious."
-- Bill Meyer
"It's our attitude in life that determines life's attitude toward us."
-- Earl Nightingale, Motivational Speaker
"If you would hit the mark, you must aim a little above it; every arrow
that files feels the attraction of earth."
-- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, author
"Ideas are a dime a dozen. People who implement them are priceless."
-- Mary Kay Ash, Entrepreneur
"Courage is not limited to the battlefield. The real tests of courage
are much quieter. They are the inner tests, like enduring pain when the
room is empty or standing alone when you're misunderstood."
-- Charles Swindoll
"Dig the well before you are thirsty."
-- Chinese Proverb
"Progress always involves risks. You can't steal second base and keep
your foot on first."
-- Frederick Wilcox, writer
What lies behind us, and what lies before us, are tiny matters compared
to what lies within us."
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson, Poet
"The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it, and
exploits it as an opportunity."
-- Peter Drucker, Businessman
"Thought is the original source of all wealth, all success, all material
gain, all great discoveries and inventions, and of all achievement."
-- Claude M. Bristol
"We make a living by what we get. We make a life by what we give."
-- Winston Churchill, British prime minister
"Only passions, great passions, can elevate the soul to great things."
-- Denis Diderot, French Philosopher and Writer
"Most folks are about as happy as they make up their minds to be."
-- Abraham Lincoln, 16th U.S. president
Monday, November 2, 2009
Don't believe the hype
"Don't believe the hype!" The words from Public Enemy's hit song title rang true once again last week when the Commerce Department reported the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 3rd Quarter. As you can see from the chart below, GDP rose by 3.5% for the first gain in a year and the strongest reading in two years.
While most media outlets were giddy about the news and started the hype that the recession is behind us, it's important to remember that there's more to the economic data than just the headlines.
The temporary "Cash for Clunkers" program has now expired, but was a big part of last quarter's GDP gain. If we remove it from the total, the reading would have been a more modest 1.9%. But there is even more to the rise in the latest GDP number that is just temporary...
Also bolstering the economy has been the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit - which is set to expire at the end of this month. Many home buyers have been taking advantage of this program - and wisely so.
New Home Sales were reported last week, showing a 7.5-month supply of inventory. While that number is slightly worse than last month's 7.3 reading, it's still a big improvement from where we were in January. Back in January, inventory levels reached a high of 12.4-month supply! The improvement in housing inventories has been due in large part to the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which is set to expire on November 30.
There is a real possibility of an extension of this program through a proposed Bill, but it is not yet a certainty. The extension Bill still must be reconciled between the House and Senate, and then voted on for final approval. Under the current extension proposal, sales with signed purchase agreements by April 30th that close before June 30th, 2010 would qualify for the credit.
Another positive element would be the possible addition of $6,500 tax credit for other primary home purchasers, meaning the tax credit would no longer be limited only to first-time homebuyers. There is also a possibility that qualifying income limits could increase from $75,000 to $125,000 for singles, and from $150,000 to $250,000 for joint tax filers.
This week brings us new employment numbers...and a chance to see if the labor market is showing signs of recovery. The employment news begins Wednesday with the ADP National Employment Report. Sandwiched between that report and Friday's Jobs Report, is the Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday.
The big news comes on Friday, when the all-important Jobs Report will be released. Last month's report underscored the struggling labor market, as the Labor Department reported 263,000 jobs lost in September and an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.8%. The report due out this week is expected to show 166,000 jobs lost in October, which would be significantly better than the previous month if it happens. However, the Unemployment Rate is expected to continue its climb to 9.9%.
In addition to employment news, we'll also see the ISM Index on Monday. This is the king of all manufacturing indices and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector.
Finally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its two-day meeting this week, with an announcement of the Fed Rate Decision and Policy Statement due on Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. (ET).
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds were able to bounce back last week with help from weakness in the Stock markets.
Turning Back the Hands of Time
This weekend, the sun set on another season of Daylight Saving Time. The extra daylight we now enjoy was actually the result of the Energy Policy Act, which was enacted by Congress back in 2005. But did you know that throughout its long history, Daylight Saving Time has had a remarkable and sometimes unexpected impact?
A man was actually able to avoid the draft for the Vietnam War using a Daylight Saving Time loophole. When he was born, it was just after midnight, DST. When he was drafted, he successfully argued that in his home state of Delaware, standard time - not DST - was the official time for recording births. So he was technically born on the previous date--which had a much higher draft lottery number - and he was able to avoid being drafted.
In September 1999, the West Bank was on Daylight Saving Time, while Israel had switched back to standard time. A group of West Bank terrorists prepared some timed bombs - but misunderstood the time change - and the bombs exploded early, killing the terrorists themselves, rather than the intended victims - two busloads of innocent citizens.
In the 1950s and 60s, each state and locality was permitted to choose start and end DST dates as they desired. During 1965, Minneapolis and St. Paul - which are considered one metropolitan area - didn't agree on start dates, and for a period of time, these Twin Cities had a one hour time change between them. And on one Ohio to Virginia bus route, passengers technically had to change their watches seven times in 35 miles!
To keep to their published timetables, Amtrak trains cannot leave a station before the scheduled time. So when the clocks "fall back" in the fall, all trains that are running on time actually stop at 2 am - the official time of DST change - and wait one hour before resuming their routes. In the spring, the routes instantaneously become one hour behind schedule, but they just keep going and do their best to make up the time.
So Daylight Saving Time sure can have some unexpected impact.
As we enter the first week of Daylight Saving Time, be sure to double-check all of your electronic devices and confirm that the time is correct. Although you may be accustomed to your computer and maybe even your digital clock in your car automatically updating, the recent change of dates for Daylight Saving Time may require that these devices be manually changed, as they now may NOT be ready to update to the correct time on the correct date!
Call me if I can help you, your friends or family out! More news to come!
While most media outlets were giddy about the news and started the hype that the recession is behind us, it's important to remember that there's more to the economic data than just the headlines.
The temporary "Cash for Clunkers" program has now expired, but was a big part of last quarter's GDP gain. If we remove it from the total, the reading would have been a more modest 1.9%. But there is even more to the rise in the latest GDP number that is just temporary...
Also bolstering the economy has been the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit - which is set to expire at the end of this month. Many home buyers have been taking advantage of this program - and wisely so.
New Home Sales were reported last week, showing a 7.5-month supply of inventory. While that number is slightly worse than last month's 7.3 reading, it's still a big improvement from where we were in January. Back in January, inventory levels reached a high of 12.4-month supply! The improvement in housing inventories has been due in large part to the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which is set to expire on November 30.
There is a real possibility of an extension of this program through a proposed Bill, but it is not yet a certainty. The extension Bill still must be reconciled between the House and Senate, and then voted on for final approval. Under the current extension proposal, sales with signed purchase agreements by April 30th that close before June 30th, 2010 would qualify for the credit.
Another positive element would be the possible addition of $6,500 tax credit for other primary home purchasers, meaning the tax credit would no longer be limited only to first-time homebuyers. There is also a possibility that qualifying income limits could increase from $75,000 to $125,000 for singles, and from $150,000 to $250,000 for joint tax filers.
This week brings us new employment numbers...and a chance to see if the labor market is showing signs of recovery. The employment news begins Wednesday with the ADP National Employment Report. Sandwiched between that report and Friday's Jobs Report, is the Initial Jobless Claims report on Thursday.
The big news comes on Friday, when the all-important Jobs Report will be released. Last month's report underscored the struggling labor market, as the Labor Department reported 263,000 jobs lost in September and an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.8%. The report due out this week is expected to show 166,000 jobs lost in October, which would be significantly better than the previous month if it happens. However, the Unemployment Rate is expected to continue its climb to 9.9%.
In addition to employment news, we'll also see the ISM Index on Monday. This is the king of all manufacturing indices and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector.
Finally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its two-day meeting this week, with an announcement of the Fed Rate Decision and Policy Statement due on Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. (ET).
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds were able to bounce back last week with help from weakness in the Stock markets.
Turning Back the Hands of Time
This weekend, the sun set on another season of Daylight Saving Time. The extra daylight we now enjoy was actually the result of the Energy Policy Act, which was enacted by Congress back in 2005. But did you know that throughout its long history, Daylight Saving Time has had a remarkable and sometimes unexpected impact?
A man was actually able to avoid the draft for the Vietnam War using a Daylight Saving Time loophole. When he was born, it was just after midnight, DST. When he was drafted, he successfully argued that in his home state of Delaware, standard time - not DST - was the official time for recording births. So he was technically born on the previous date--which had a much higher draft lottery number - and he was able to avoid being drafted.
In September 1999, the West Bank was on Daylight Saving Time, while Israel had switched back to standard time. A group of West Bank terrorists prepared some timed bombs - but misunderstood the time change - and the bombs exploded early, killing the terrorists themselves, rather than the intended victims - two busloads of innocent citizens.
In the 1950s and 60s, each state and locality was permitted to choose start and end DST dates as they desired. During 1965, Minneapolis and St. Paul - which are considered one metropolitan area - didn't agree on start dates, and for a period of time, these Twin Cities had a one hour time change between them. And on one Ohio to Virginia bus route, passengers technically had to change their watches seven times in 35 miles!
To keep to their published timetables, Amtrak trains cannot leave a station before the scheduled time. So when the clocks "fall back" in the fall, all trains that are running on time actually stop at 2 am - the official time of DST change - and wait one hour before resuming their routes. In the spring, the routes instantaneously become one hour behind schedule, but they just keep going and do their best to make up the time.
So Daylight Saving Time sure can have some unexpected impact.
As we enter the first week of Daylight Saving Time, be sure to double-check all of your electronic devices and confirm that the time is correct. Although you may be accustomed to your computer and maybe even your digital clock in your car automatically updating, the recent change of dates for Daylight Saving Time may require that these devices be manually changed, as they now may NOT be ready to update to the correct time on the correct date!
Call me if I can help you, your friends or family out! More news to come!
For the week of November 2, 2009
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Last week September New Home Sales were reported down 3.6% for single-family units. But the supply of unsold new homes is just 7.5 months and inventories, at 251,000, are down 56.1% from their mid-2006 peak and at their lowest level since 1982. The sales drop followed five straight months of sales increases and some observers felt the decline may have come from more aggressive pricing by sellers, actually a bullish sign for the housing market.
Indeed, the median new home price was UP 2.5% for September, a bigger than usual gain for the time of year. The average price went UP 10.2%, the biggest September rise on record. Finally, the average price of new homes sold -- $282,600 -- was only 1.6% lower than last year. Speaking of prices, the Case-Shiller index reported home prices up in August for the fourth month in a row. The average of the 20 metro areas measured showed a 1.2% gain.
Finally, we had the good news covered in last week's Inside Lending Bulletin that the Senate passed an extension of the first-time homebuyer $8000 tax credit, with higher qualifying income limits and adding a $6500 credit to buyers who have owned their homes at least 5 years. Let's hope the House passes it too. Finally, the House and Senate extended the ability of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration to back conforming loans in high-cost areas, up to $729,750 through all of 2010. These higher limits would have expired at the end of this year.
Review of Last Week
CAUTIOUSLY RECOVERING... The government reported our first quarter of positive economic growth last week, indicating the recovery has begun. Yet investors kept the Dow moving up and down over 100 points four out of the five days, ending the week with a startling 249-point drop. Was this a bull market correction, or the return to a bear market? Who knows? The only thing certain is that investors aren't quite sure the economy is back on track.
Makes you wonder what it will take to convince them. The initial estimate for Q3 real GDP revealed the economy growing at a 3.5% annual rate -- way better than expected and the first rise in GDP in over a year. Happily, most of the advance was driven by consumption. Q3 GDP also showed home building UP at a 23.3% annual rate, its fastest rise since the '80's. Plus, Q3 corporate earnings reported so far show over 80% of the companies beating estimates, the highest rate in history.
On the jobs front, Initial Unemployment Claims dropped and the 4-week moving average hit a new low in the recovery of 526,000. Continuing Claims fell to 5.8 million. Positive news also included Durable Goods Orders UP for September, their fourth boost in six months. Most impressive of all, the Chicago PMI measuring Midwest manufacturing, shot up to its highest level in over a year. And the Richmond Fed index for Mid-Atlantic manufacturing logged its sixth straight month in expansion territory. All are favorable signs for U.S. manufacturing.
For the week, the Dow finished down 2.6%, to 9712.73; the S&P 500 was down 4.0%, to 1036.19; while the Nasdaq fell 5.1%, to 2045.11.
The bond market closed the week with a rally, helped in no small measure by the slide in stocks. The FNMA 30-year 4.5% bond we watch ended up from the previous week's close, finishing at $101.19. Mortgage rates inched up a bit but remain in historically low territory. For this year, the Freddie Mac survey of mortgage rates reported its lowest 10-month average going back to 1971.
This Week’s Forecast
FOCUS ON THE FED... Almost no one expects a rate change coming out of this week's Fed meeting, but economists will be looking at the Fed policy statement for any signs of when things may change. Other items of interest this week include Pending Home Sales on Monday and Friday's Employment Report, where we'll search for signs of a turnaround on the jobs front.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Last week September New Home Sales were reported down 3.6% for single-family units. But the supply of unsold new homes is just 7.5 months and inventories, at 251,000, are down 56.1% from their mid-2006 peak and at their lowest level since 1982. The sales drop followed five straight months of sales increases and some observers felt the decline may have come from more aggressive pricing by sellers, actually a bullish sign for the housing market.
Indeed, the median new home price was UP 2.5% for September, a bigger than usual gain for the time of year. The average price went UP 10.2%, the biggest September rise on record. Finally, the average price of new homes sold -- $282,600 -- was only 1.6% lower than last year. Speaking of prices, the Case-Shiller index reported home prices up in August for the fourth month in a row. The average of the 20 metro areas measured showed a 1.2% gain.
Finally, we had the good news covered in last week's Inside Lending Bulletin that the Senate passed an extension of the first-time homebuyer $8000 tax credit, with higher qualifying income limits and adding a $6500 credit to buyers who have owned their homes at least 5 years. Let's hope the House passes it too. Finally, the House and Senate extended the ability of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration to back conforming loans in high-cost areas, up to $729,750 through all of 2010. These higher limits would have expired at the end of this year.
Review of Last Week
CAUTIOUSLY RECOVERING... The government reported our first quarter of positive economic growth last week, indicating the recovery has begun. Yet investors kept the Dow moving up and down over 100 points four out of the five days, ending the week with a startling 249-point drop. Was this a bull market correction, or the return to a bear market? Who knows? The only thing certain is that investors aren't quite sure the economy is back on track.
Makes you wonder what it will take to convince them. The initial estimate for Q3 real GDP revealed the economy growing at a 3.5% annual rate -- way better than expected and the first rise in GDP in over a year. Happily, most of the advance was driven by consumption. Q3 GDP also showed home building UP at a 23.3% annual rate, its fastest rise since the '80's. Plus, Q3 corporate earnings reported so far show over 80% of the companies beating estimates, the highest rate in history.
On the jobs front, Initial Unemployment Claims dropped and the 4-week moving average hit a new low in the recovery of 526,000. Continuing Claims fell to 5.8 million. Positive news also included Durable Goods Orders UP for September, their fourth boost in six months. Most impressive of all, the Chicago PMI measuring Midwest manufacturing, shot up to its highest level in over a year. And the Richmond Fed index for Mid-Atlantic manufacturing logged its sixth straight month in expansion territory. All are favorable signs for U.S. manufacturing.
For the week, the Dow finished down 2.6%, to 9712.73; the S&P 500 was down 4.0%, to 1036.19; while the Nasdaq fell 5.1%, to 2045.11.
The bond market closed the week with a rally, helped in no small measure by the slide in stocks. The FNMA 30-year 4.5% bond we watch ended up from the previous week's close, finishing at $101.19. Mortgage rates inched up a bit but remain in historically low territory. For this year, the Freddie Mac survey of mortgage rates reported its lowest 10-month average going back to 1971.
This Week’s Forecast
FOCUS ON THE FED... Almost no one expects a rate change coming out of this week's Fed meeting, but economists will be looking at the Fed policy statement for any signs of when things may change. Other items of interest this week include Pending Home Sales on Monday and Friday's Employment Report, where we'll search for signs of a turnaround on the jobs front.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Last Week in the News
Last Week in the News
The Commerce Department announced that gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2009. The rebound ended four consecutive quarters of contracting economic activity, the longest period of decline since quarterly records began in 1947.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 47.7 in October from a revised 53.4 in September. Economists had expected a reading of 53.5. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index rose 1% in August. It was the third consecutive monthly gain and follows a 1.2% increase in July.
Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — rose 1% in September after falling a revised 2.6% in August. Among the areas of strong growth were orders for heavy machinery, up 7.9%, the best showing since an 8.5% increase in March 2008.
The Commerce Department reported new home sales fell 3.6% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000 from a downwardly revised rate of 417,000 in August. It was the first decline since March.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 1,000 to 530,000 in the week ending October 24. The figure was higher than the 525,000 that economists had forecast. The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits in the week ending October 17 fell by 148,000 to 5.8 million.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending and pending home sales on November 2, factory orders on November 3 and wholesale trade on November 6.
The Commerce Department announced that gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter of 2009. The rebound ended four consecutive quarters of contracting economic activity, the longest period of decline since quarterly records began in 1947.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 47.7 in October from a revised 53.4 in September. Economists had expected a reading of 53.5. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index rose 1% in August. It was the third consecutive monthly gain and follows a 1.2% increase in July.
Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — rose 1% in September after falling a revised 2.6% in August. Among the areas of strong growth were orders for heavy machinery, up 7.9%, the best showing since an 8.5% increase in March 2008.
The Commerce Department reported new home sales fell 3.6% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000 from a downwardly revised rate of 417,000 in August. It was the first decline since March.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 1,000 to 530,000 in the week ending October 24. The figure was higher than the 525,000 that economists had forecast. The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits in the week ending October 17 fell by 148,000 to 5.8 million.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending and pending home sales on November 2, factory orders on November 3 and wholesale trade on November 6.
Senate Said Yes! How about the House? Extend Homebuyer Tax Credit
Senators Agree to Extend Homebuyer Tax Credit
Legislation Pending Approval From Congress
Senators have agreed to extend the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit originally set to expire on November 30. Once the Senate officially votes on the bill it will move to the House of Representatives, which strongly supports the extension. The Obama administration has also signaled its strong support for an extension of the tax credit.
Aside from the first-time homebuyer credit, the new plan would offer a $6,500 credit for repeat or move-up homebuyers who have lived in their primary residence for five years or more. The tax credits would be available to buyers who sign purchase agreements on a new or existing primary residence between December 1, 2009 and April 30, 2010. Buyers would have until June 30 to close on their new homes.
There is an $800,000 price limit on all homes eligible for the credit. The income limits for all buyers would rise to $125,000 per year for individuals and $225,000 for married couples. Under the current program, the limits are $75,000 and $150,000 respectively. The first-time homebuyer credit is also available to those who have not owned a home in the previous three years. The credit does not have to be repaid unless the home is sold or ceases to be the primary residence within three years.
According to the Treasury Department, more than 1.2 million borrowers have claimed $8.5 billion of the $13.6 billion set aside for the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
Please be advised that this legislation has not yet passed, but I will be sure to keep you informed as it moves through Congress toward approval. I’m committed to meeting your home financing needs.
Legislation Pending Approval From Congress
Senators have agreed to extend the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit originally set to expire on November 30. Once the Senate officially votes on the bill it will move to the House of Representatives, which strongly supports the extension. The Obama administration has also signaled its strong support for an extension of the tax credit.
Aside from the first-time homebuyer credit, the new plan would offer a $6,500 credit for repeat or move-up homebuyers who have lived in their primary residence for five years or more. The tax credits would be available to buyers who sign purchase agreements on a new or existing primary residence between December 1, 2009 and April 30, 2010. Buyers would have until June 30 to close on their new homes.
There is an $800,000 price limit on all homes eligible for the credit. The income limits for all buyers would rise to $125,000 per year for individuals and $225,000 for married couples. Under the current program, the limits are $75,000 and $150,000 respectively. The first-time homebuyer credit is also available to those who have not owned a home in the previous three years. The credit does not have to be repaid unless the home is sold or ceases to be the primary residence within three years.
According to the Treasury Department, more than 1.2 million borrowers have claimed $8.5 billion of the $13.6 billion set aside for the first-time homebuyer tax credit.
Please be advised that this legislation has not yet passed, but I will be sure to keep you informed as it moves through Congress toward approval. I’m committed to meeting your home financing needs.
Breaking News! Not Voted Yet But Soon!
Breaking News
According to the Associated Press, Senators have agreed to extend the tax credit for first-time homebuyers and to offer a reduced credit to some repeat buyers.
Reportedly, Senators agreed to extend the existing tax credit for first-time homebuyers while offering a reduced credit of up to $6,500 to buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five years.
The tax credits would be available to buyers who sign sales agreements by the end of April 2010. They would have until the end of June to close on their new homes.
This is a preliminary report, details and conditions may change as the legislation becomes finalized. We will give more details as they become available.
Thank you and please call if we can be of service.
According to the Associated Press, Senators have agreed to extend the tax credit for first-time homebuyers and to offer a reduced credit to some repeat buyers.
Reportedly, Senators agreed to extend the existing tax credit for first-time homebuyers while offering a reduced credit of up to $6,500 to buyers who have owned their current homes for at least five years.
The tax credits would be available to buyers who sign sales agreements by the end of April 2010. They would have until the end of June to close on their new homes.
This is a preliminary report, details and conditions may change as the legislation becomes finalized. We will give more details as they become available.
Thank you and please call if we can be of service.
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