For the week of February 28, 2011
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
Things do keep changing, but we all hope that by and large those changes mean progress. We certainly saw evidence of that in the housing market last week, as Existing Home Sales headed up in January for the third month in a row. They've now reached a 5.36 million annual rate, close to the long-term trend of 5.5 million and up over 5% from a year ago. This, as Martha Stewart says, is "a good thing," since the supply of existing homes has now dropped to 7.6 months, close to the 6-month ideal, which favors neither buyers nor sellers.
The Case-Shiller home price index for the 20 largest metros was down in December, its sixth straight monthly decline since the tax credit ended. The media seemed thrilled to announce a "double dip" in housing prices, probably because they've been unable to use their "double dip" catch phrase for anything else. The facts, as usual, tell another story. Case-Shiller was down just 2.4% for the year, its smallest drop since the 2006 price peak. And some observers anticipate modest price gains this year. New Home Sales did fall 12.6% in January, which may have been due to the bad weather, though sales were up in the Northeast and Midwest and down in the West and South. Go figure. Inventories are now at their lowest level since 1967.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Targeting is a powerful business strategy. Don't try to be all things to all people. Pick a niche. The secret to broadening your appeal often lies in narrowing your focus.
Review of Last Week
BULLS TAKE A BREATHER...Everyone on Wall Street had Presidents Day off Monday but the bulls never really showed up for work the rest of the week either. Well, bulls did stage a bit of a comeback on Friday, but it wasn't enough to bring stock prices up to where they were the week before. So after three weeks of charging higher, the markets fell off, as all three major indexes went south for the week.
The Middle East continues to trouble investors, with Libya the latest focal point for that region's violent uprisings. There was a sympathetic jump in oil prices, never a good development for our economy, and the week ended with the second estimate for Q4 GDP revised DOWN to a 2.8% growth rate from the original 3.2%. Weighing in against these negatives, the latest Consumer Confidence Report showed people's attitudes about the economy are actually growing more upbeat. The Richmond Fed index showed robust manufacturing growth in the important mid-Atlantic region. And initial jobless claims went below 400,000 for the week, while continuing claims remain under 4 million.
For the week, the Dow ended down 2.1%, at 12,130; the S&P 500 was down 1.7%, to 1,320; and the Nasdaq was off 1.9%, ending at 2,781 .
Bond prices benefited from both increased tensions in the Middle East and the drop in GDP. The flight to safety helped the FNMA 4.0% bond we watch end decidedly up for the week, closing at $98.17. Mortgage rates eased a tad lower again. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages showed national average fixed-rate mortgage rates staying down near historic lows.
DID YOU KNOW?...Mortgage interest rates are based on Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), also called mortgage bonds. When bond prices go up, mortgage rates go down, but when bonds drop, rates rise.
This Week’s Forecast
STEADY AS SHE GOES...This week there's a wide range of economic news, but it's all expected to be a bit bland. Core PCE Prices, the Fed's favorite inflation measure, should drift up a little, but stay well within the target range. The ISM and Chicago PMI indexes are forecast to show manufacturing growing, though at no faster a rate. Pending Home Sales, a measure of signed contracts for closings a few months out, should be down a bit in December after being up a bit the previous month. Q4 Productivity is expected to hold steady.
The big news of course will be the February Employment Report come Friday. But again, steady progress is predicted, not the dramatic boost in jobs we need. With 180,000 new jobs forecast, the unemployment rate will actually inch up because of workforce expansion.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...There are more rumblings about inflation, which could send the Fed Funds Rate heading north, but not while the jobs recovery is proceeding at such a snail's pace. For the first half of the year, economists think there is virtually zero likelihood of a rate hike from the Fed. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
Friday, March 4, 2011
10 Reasons Renters Should Be Buyers
10 Reasons Renters Should Be Buyers
Renting is a very frustrating way of life. The money you pay every month disappears, leaving you with few benefits other than a roof over your head. Compared to owning a home, renting is a futile exercise that leaves you with nothing after your lease is up. It’s no surprise that people want to get out of the rent race, and here are 10 reasons why people decide to buy a home versus renting.
1. They Want to Build Equity
Homebuyers build equity as their property increases in value over time. This equity has many benefits, including the ability of a homebuyer to leverage equity in lines of credit to make repairs or additions to their home. Equity is a powerful thing and a natural consequence of home ownership. Renters never gain equity in their rental space, and at the end of their lease they are thrown out on the street with nothing to show for years of on time rental payments.
2. They Don’t Want to Throw Their Money Away
Without equity, what does paying your rent on time gain you every month? The truth is that paying rent guarantees a roof over your head for about 30 days and nothing more. In that sense, renting is like an extended stay hotel in that at the end of your rental period or lease you have nothing to show for the money you’ve paid. This makes renting a terrible investment when compared to home buying.
3. They Want More Space
It’s incredible how little you get for your rental payment each month. Most renters are lucky to have even a tiny balcony, let alone roomy closets o storage space. Many homes come with luxurious yards and spacious garages for storage. This makes buying a home an attractive option for those who prefer to stretch their legs.
4. They Want to Make Upgrades
Most leases forbid the renter from altering the rental space. For those do it yourselfers, this can mean a boring living experience. Home buyers are not only allowed to make upgrades, but doing so can be a great investment and raise the overall value of your home. From an investment perspective, this is a no brainer.
5. They Don’t Want to Pay Extra to Own Pets
For those pet lovers out there, renting can be a major financial undertaking. Pet deposits can be very expensive, and some apartments add a monthly premium to rent just for having a pet, and separate deposits/premiums for each pet. These fees can add up fast! Homebuyers don’t have to deal with these sorts of fees, and they can also typically provide a better environment for their pets as well.
6. They Don’t Want to Be So Close to Noisy Neighbors
Have you ever lived on the second floor of a 3 story apartment complex? Wild partiers underneath blaring music at 4AM and home fitness gurus doing jumping jacks above you can make you realize just how annoying living so close to your neighbors can be. Homebuyers can sometimes deal with annoying neighbors as well, but at least they’re not rattling your chandelier when they stomp their feet down the hallway.
7. They Don’t Want to Deal With a Landlord
Sometimes dealing with a landlord can be tough. Some landlords are not very friendly or flexible, and won’t hesitate to throw you on the street if rent isn’t on time. Other landlords can be so distant that problems with rent or appliances don’t get resolved for months or even years. As a homeowner, there’s no landlord to deal with and you have the freedom and independence of conducting business on your own terms.
8. Their Hobbies Make Renting a Bad Idea
Drummers and musicians need a place to live, but do you want them living above you in a cramped apartment complex? For those renters who have hobbies or professions that are noisy or require space, renting just isn’t an option for them. Owning a home with plenty of space is their only way to go.
9. They Don’t Want to Deal With Deposits
Security deposits? These never seem to work out in the renters favor and come moving time it always seems like every little problem leads to forfeiture of the sometimes huge security deposits we have to pay just to sign the lease. Home buyers don’t have to deal with this as their home is more closely tied to their assets and their individual independence.
10. They Want to Live the American Dream
Owning a home is a big part of the American dream, and most people would say that the independence, autonomy, and sense of accomplishment that owning a home brings is an essential part of the American way of life. Does renting an apartment do the same?
If this sounds like you then click the link below and start your search!
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
Renting is a very frustrating way of life. The money you pay every month disappears, leaving you with few benefits other than a roof over your head. Compared to owning a home, renting is a futile exercise that leaves you with nothing after your lease is up. It’s no surprise that people want to get out of the rent race, and here are 10 reasons why people decide to buy a home versus renting.
1. They Want to Build Equity
Homebuyers build equity as their property increases in value over time. This equity has many benefits, including the ability of a homebuyer to leverage equity in lines of credit to make repairs or additions to their home. Equity is a powerful thing and a natural consequence of home ownership. Renters never gain equity in their rental space, and at the end of their lease they are thrown out on the street with nothing to show for years of on time rental payments.
2. They Don’t Want to Throw Their Money Away
Without equity, what does paying your rent on time gain you every month? The truth is that paying rent guarantees a roof over your head for about 30 days and nothing more. In that sense, renting is like an extended stay hotel in that at the end of your rental period or lease you have nothing to show for the money you’ve paid. This makes renting a terrible investment when compared to home buying.
3. They Want More Space
It’s incredible how little you get for your rental payment each month. Most renters are lucky to have even a tiny balcony, let alone roomy closets o storage space. Many homes come with luxurious yards and spacious garages for storage. This makes buying a home an attractive option for those who prefer to stretch their legs.
4. They Want to Make Upgrades
Most leases forbid the renter from altering the rental space. For those do it yourselfers, this can mean a boring living experience. Home buyers are not only allowed to make upgrades, but doing so can be a great investment and raise the overall value of your home. From an investment perspective, this is a no brainer.
5. They Don’t Want to Pay Extra to Own Pets
For those pet lovers out there, renting can be a major financial undertaking. Pet deposits can be very expensive, and some apartments add a monthly premium to rent just for having a pet, and separate deposits/premiums for each pet. These fees can add up fast! Homebuyers don’t have to deal with these sorts of fees, and they can also typically provide a better environment for their pets as well.
6. They Don’t Want to Be So Close to Noisy Neighbors
Have you ever lived on the second floor of a 3 story apartment complex? Wild partiers underneath blaring music at 4AM and home fitness gurus doing jumping jacks above you can make you realize just how annoying living so close to your neighbors can be. Homebuyers can sometimes deal with annoying neighbors as well, but at least they’re not rattling your chandelier when they stomp their feet down the hallway.
7. They Don’t Want to Deal With a Landlord
Sometimes dealing with a landlord can be tough. Some landlords are not very friendly or flexible, and won’t hesitate to throw you on the street if rent isn’t on time. Other landlords can be so distant that problems with rent or appliances don’t get resolved for months or even years. As a homeowner, there’s no landlord to deal with and you have the freedom and independence of conducting business on your own terms.
8. Their Hobbies Make Renting a Bad Idea
Drummers and musicians need a place to live, but do you want them living above you in a cramped apartment complex? For those renters who have hobbies or professions that are noisy or require space, renting just isn’t an option for them. Owning a home with plenty of space is their only way to go.
9. They Don’t Want to Deal With Deposits
Security deposits? These never seem to work out in the renters favor and come moving time it always seems like every little problem leads to forfeiture of the sometimes huge security deposits we have to pay just to sign the lease. Home buyers don’t have to deal with this as their home is more closely tied to their assets and their individual independence.
10. They Want to Live the American Dream
Owning a home is a big part of the American dream, and most people would say that the independence, autonomy, and sense of accomplishment that owning a home brings is an essential part of the American way of life. Does renting an apartment do the same?
If this sounds like you then click the link below and start your search!
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
For the week of February 21, 2011
For the week of February 21, 2011
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
We who work in the real estate and mortgage industries know exactly how Elvis felt. The same people who unfairly blamed us totally for the recession now look to us alone for signs the economic recovery has taken hold. They might want to remember the health of the housing market is directly dependent on the health of the jobs market, which is not under our control. In any case, everyone felt better last week when January Housing Starts were UP a surprising 14.6%. Even though starts are down 2.6% from a year ago, this still shows builders are more hopeful going forward. The boost came from multi-family units, though single-family starts were off a mere 1% for the month.
A lot of home buying activity is due to the affordability now out there. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a major bank reported their index shows home affordability in Q4 of 2010 at its highest level in 20 years. Their measure found that 73.9% of the new and existing homes sold in Q4 were affordable to families making the national median income of $64,400.
Business tip of the week... A big part of success is not giving up. Studies show that one trait shared by all very successful people is perseverance. They are persistent, determined, tenacious, pursuing a goal far beyond the point where the average person gets discouraged.
Review of Last Week
THE BULLS KEEP CHARGING... It's not like the running of the bulls at Pamplona just yet, but the bulls on Wall Street are definitely picking up steam. We had another weekly gain in the stock market as the three major indexes were up around 1% and the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new two-year highs. The Nasdaq reached a three-year high, just short of its 2007 peak. If the stock markets are a leading indicator of the overall economy, the recovery should pick up steam as the year goes on.
There were worries over rising Chinese interest rates and disruptions in the Middle East, but these were dispelled by the economic reports. The consumer is key to the recovery, so it was good to see retail sales are now UP seven months in a row. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, as year-over-year, the Core Consumer Price Index is now up 1.0%. Core CPI, the Fed's key inflation reading, is still within their target range and observers feel deflation concerns are now put to rest.
In other news, the Empire State Index showed manufacturing continuing to expand. This is great, though the jobs recovery depends on the services sector, where over 85% of the workforce is employed. Fortunately, that sector is expanding at its fastest pace in five years. Let's hope the jobs follow.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.0%, at 12,391; the S&P 500 was also UP 1.0%, to 1,329; and the Nasdaq went UP 0.9%, ending at 2,834.
Even with the stock surge, bond prices held on. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, but still tame. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended up 18 basis points for the week, closing at $97.18. Mortgage rates, which had been inching up, fell back a bit. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages showed national average fixed-rate mortgage rates remained near historic lows.
This Week’s Forecast
JANUARY HOME SALES, CONSUMER MINDSET, Q4 GDP... Happy Presidents Day! The markets will be closed Monday but then we'll have some important economic reports. January Existing Homes Sales on Wednesday are expected to be a tad off December's pace. The same goes for January New Home Sales on Thursday.
The week begins and ends with readings on the consumer mindset. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence is forecast up for February while Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment should hold steady. January Durable Goods Orders are predicted to be growing again, a sign business is investing in capital equipment and, perhaps next, in jobs. Friday, we get the second estimate of Q4 GDP, expected to be up a bit from the original estimate.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months You hear a lot more experts now disagreeing with Fed policy, including some Fed members. But Fed Chairman Bernanke seems determined to keep the Funds Rate at its rock bottom level until we see stronger signs of economic growth and jobs recovery. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
We who work in the real estate and mortgage industries know exactly how Elvis felt. The same people who unfairly blamed us totally for the recession now look to us alone for signs the economic recovery has taken hold. They might want to remember the health of the housing market is directly dependent on the health of the jobs market, which is not under our control. In any case, everyone felt better last week when January Housing Starts were UP a surprising 14.6%. Even though starts are down 2.6% from a year ago, this still shows builders are more hopeful going forward. The boost came from multi-family units, though single-family starts were off a mere 1% for the month.
A lot of home buying activity is due to the affordability now out there. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a major bank reported their index shows home affordability in Q4 of 2010 at its highest level in 20 years. Their measure found that 73.9% of the new and existing homes sold in Q4 were affordable to families making the national median income of $64,400.
Business tip of the week... A big part of success is not giving up. Studies show that one trait shared by all very successful people is perseverance. They are persistent, determined, tenacious, pursuing a goal far beyond the point where the average person gets discouraged.
Review of Last Week
THE BULLS KEEP CHARGING... It's not like the running of the bulls at Pamplona just yet, but the bulls on Wall Street are definitely picking up steam. We had another weekly gain in the stock market as the three major indexes were up around 1% and the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new two-year highs. The Nasdaq reached a three-year high, just short of its 2007 peak. If the stock markets are a leading indicator of the overall economy, the recovery should pick up steam as the year goes on.
There were worries over rising Chinese interest rates and disruptions in the Middle East, but these were dispelled by the economic reports. The consumer is key to the recovery, so it was good to see retail sales are now UP seven months in a row. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, as year-over-year, the Core Consumer Price Index is now up 1.0%. Core CPI, the Fed's key inflation reading, is still within their target range and observers feel deflation concerns are now put to rest.
In other news, the Empire State Index showed manufacturing continuing to expand. This is great, though the jobs recovery depends on the services sector, where over 85% of the workforce is employed. Fortunately, that sector is expanding at its fastest pace in five years. Let's hope the jobs follow.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 1.0%, at 12,391; the S&P 500 was also UP 1.0%, to 1,329; and the Nasdaq went UP 0.9%, ending at 2,834.
Even with the stock surge, bond prices held on. Inflation was a little hotter than expected, but still tame. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended up 18 basis points for the week, closing at $97.18. Mortgage rates, which had been inching up, fell back a bit. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages showed national average fixed-rate mortgage rates remained near historic lows.
This Week’s Forecast
JANUARY HOME SALES, CONSUMER MINDSET, Q4 GDP... Happy Presidents Day! The markets will be closed Monday but then we'll have some important economic reports. January Existing Homes Sales on Wednesday are expected to be a tad off December's pace. The same goes for January New Home Sales on Thursday.
The week begins and ends with readings on the consumer mindset. Tuesday's Consumer Confidence is forecast up for February while Friday's Michigan Consumer Sentiment should hold steady. January Durable Goods Orders are predicted to be growing again, a sign business is investing in capital equipment and, perhaps next, in jobs. Friday, we get the second estimate of Q4 GDP, expected to be up a bit from the original estimate.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months You hear a lot more experts now disagreeing with Fed policy, including some Fed members. But Fed Chairman Bernanke seems determined to keep the Funds Rate at its rock bottom level until we see stronger signs of economic growth and jobs recovery. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
For the week of February 7, 2011
For the week of February 7, 2011
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
There's good news in the latest housing market forecast for 2011 from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After dipping 4.8% last year, sales of existing homes are predicted to grow 7.9% this year, to 5.3 million. The gain for 2012 is forecast to be a little less, up 4.5%, to 5.53 million. The existing home median price went up 0.3% in 2010, a nice recovery from the 12.9% price drop of 2009. For 2011, the NAR sees it rising 0.5%, to $173,000, then another 2.4%, to $177,900, in 2012.
New home sales are forecast to come back more briskly, up 17.7% in 2011, following their 15.5% drop in 2010. The 2012 projection is for a strong 51.1% sales gain, to 565,000 homes. The median price for new homes, which gained 2.2% last year, should go up another 1.8% in 2011, to $224,700, then 1.9% in 2012, to $229,000. The NAR's chief economist says this rebound in home sales does depend on an improvement in the jobs market. Affordability also matters and in Q4 of 2010 housing was the most affordable on record, according to NAR numbers going back to 1971. The NAR feels the current situation of low home prices along with low interest rates should continue.
Review of Last Week
HELLO, 12,000!... Last week saw strong corporate earnings, more indications the economy is healing, and Ben Bernanke telling the National Press Club the Fed won't be withdrawing its policy support anytime soon. The net result? The Dow shot up five days in a row, crossing the 12,000 threshold and staying there, trading near its highest levels since the middle of 2008. All three major indexes delivered impressive gains, with the S&P 500 enjoying its best January since 1997. Investors shrugged off worries the Egyptian protests might further de-stabilize the whole Mideast.
Corporate earnings are running way ahead of expectations and, even more encouraging, future earnings estimates are up. The week's star performers included mammoth Exxon Mobil, drug biggie Pfizer, and video gamer Electronic Arts. The vast majority of companies reporting beat their Q4 earnings expectations, as retailers chimed in with better than expected monthly same store sales results for January.
Investors also liked the economic data. Q4 productivity was up 2.6%, proving that, yes, we ARE working harder. But we're also being compensated for that extra effort, as personal income rose in December along with personal spending, which helps fire up the economy. But things aren't overheating yet, since Core PCE Prices, the inflation number the Fed watches, was up just 0.7% the past year. ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes both showed strong economic growth. The January Employment Report showed a gain of just 36,000 jobs, but this was put to the unusually bad weather preventing people from working -- several hundred thousand more than usual. Private sector payrolls were up 50,000, their 11th monthly gain in a row, which helped drop the unemployment rate to 9.0%.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.3%, at 12,092; the S&P 500 was UP 2.7%, to 1,311; and the Nasdaq shot UP 3.1%, ending at 2,769.
While stocks soared higher, bonds got hammered. Even the Egyptian unrest couldn't ignite a flight to safety, as investors wanting to catch the rising wave of stock prices took their money out of bonds. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended down 187 basis points for the week, closing at $97.22. In spite of this drop, news of an improving economy and low inflation kept mortgage rates at historically low levels. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages reported average fixed-rate mortgage rates pretty much unchanged.
This Week’s Forecast
A QUIET WEEK... We'll have the usual weekly and continuing jobless claims, and no one is expecting huge drops in these numbers just yet. Optimistic observers expect serious declines in claims in another month or so. We'll also see the December Trade Balance showing imports growing versus exports, although U.S. companies' export revenues are still strong, a good thing. Finally, consumer confidence in the economy is forecast to be growing, at least the way the February Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sees it on Friday.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before the National Press Club last week and certainly left the impression that the Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for a decent while longer. This week's economic reports shouldn't inspire the Fed to hike the Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
Market Update
There's good news in the latest housing market forecast for 2011 from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After dipping 4.8% last year, sales of existing homes are predicted to grow 7.9% this year, to 5.3 million. The gain for 2012 is forecast to be a little less, up 4.5%, to 5.53 million. The existing home median price went up 0.3% in 2010, a nice recovery from the 12.9% price drop of 2009. For 2011, the NAR sees it rising 0.5%, to $173,000, then another 2.4%, to $177,900, in 2012.
New home sales are forecast to come back more briskly, up 17.7% in 2011, following their 15.5% drop in 2010. The 2012 projection is for a strong 51.1% sales gain, to 565,000 homes. The median price for new homes, which gained 2.2% last year, should go up another 1.8% in 2011, to $224,700, then 1.9% in 2012, to $229,000. The NAR's chief economist says this rebound in home sales does depend on an improvement in the jobs market. Affordability also matters and in Q4 of 2010 housing was the most affordable on record, according to NAR numbers going back to 1971. The NAR feels the current situation of low home prices along with low interest rates should continue.
Review of Last Week
HELLO, 12,000!... Last week saw strong corporate earnings, more indications the economy is healing, and Ben Bernanke telling the National Press Club the Fed won't be withdrawing its policy support anytime soon. The net result? The Dow shot up five days in a row, crossing the 12,000 threshold and staying there, trading near its highest levels since the middle of 2008. All three major indexes delivered impressive gains, with the S&P 500 enjoying its best January since 1997. Investors shrugged off worries the Egyptian protests might further de-stabilize the whole Mideast.
Corporate earnings are running way ahead of expectations and, even more encouraging, future earnings estimates are up. The week's star performers included mammoth Exxon Mobil, drug biggie Pfizer, and video gamer Electronic Arts. The vast majority of companies reporting beat their Q4 earnings expectations, as retailers chimed in with better than expected monthly same store sales results for January.
Investors also liked the economic data. Q4 productivity was up 2.6%, proving that, yes, we ARE working harder. But we're also being compensated for that extra effort, as personal income rose in December along with personal spending, which helps fire up the economy. But things aren't overheating yet, since Core PCE Prices, the inflation number the Fed watches, was up just 0.7% the past year. ISM Manufacturing and Services indexes both showed strong economic growth. The January Employment Report showed a gain of just 36,000 jobs, but this was put to the unusually bad weather preventing people from working -- several hundred thousand more than usual. Private sector payrolls were up 50,000, their 11th monthly gain in a row, which helped drop the unemployment rate to 9.0%.
For the week, the Dow ended UP 2.3%, at 12,092; the S&P 500 was UP 2.7%, to 1,311; and the Nasdaq shot UP 3.1%, ending at 2,769.
While stocks soared higher, bonds got hammered. Even the Egyptian unrest couldn't ignite a flight to safety, as investors wanting to catch the rising wave of stock prices took their money out of bonds. The FNMA 4.0% bond we watch ended down 187 basis points for the week, closing at $97.22. In spite of this drop, news of an improving economy and low inflation kept mortgage rates at historically low levels. Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages reported average fixed-rate mortgage rates pretty much unchanged.
This Week’s Forecast
A QUIET WEEK... We'll have the usual weekly and continuing jobless claims, and no one is expecting huge drops in these numbers just yet. Optimistic observers expect serious declines in claims in another month or so. We'll also see the December Trade Balance showing imports growing versus exports, although U.S. companies' export revenues are still strong, a good thing. Finally, consumer confidence in the economy is forecast to be growing, at least the way the February Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sees it on Friday.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before the National Press Club last week and certainly left the impression that the Funds Rate will stay at its rock bottom level for a decent while longer. This week's economic reports shouldn't inspire the Fed to hike the Rate any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
Daily Quotes March 4, 2011!
Daily Quotes March 4, 2011!
"Financial education needs to become a part of our national curriculum and scoring systems so that it's not just the rich kids that learn about money.. it's all of us."
-- David Bach, Personal Finance Author
"Communication is a skill that you can learn. It's like riding a bicycle
or typing. If you're willing to work at it, you can rapidly improve the
quality of every part of your life."
-- Brian Tracy, Author
"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can reach down to
the bottom of his soul and come up with the extra ounce of power it
takes to win when the match is even."
-- Muhammad Ali, boxer
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of
a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough."
-- Franklin Roosevelt, 32nd U.S. president
"If we could sell our experiences for what they cost us, we'd all be millionaires."
-- Abigail Van Buren
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
"Financial education needs to become a part of our national curriculum and scoring systems so that it's not just the rich kids that learn about money.. it's all of us."
-- David Bach, Personal Finance Author
"Communication is a skill that you can learn. It's like riding a bicycle
or typing. If you're willing to work at it, you can rapidly improve the
quality of every part of your life."
-- Brian Tracy, Author
"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can reach down to
the bottom of his soul and come up with the extra ounce of power it
takes to win when the match is even."
-- Muhammad Ali, boxer
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of
a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough."
-- Franklin Roosevelt, 32nd U.S. president
"If we could sell our experiences for what they cost us, we'd all be millionaires."
-- Abigail Van Buren
All "Betts" on Brian! The Only Realtor you Want!
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